Scattered showers linger on Thursday; update on Hurricane Franklin

Periods of rain are expected Wednesday night over much of Minnesota, and some spots will see thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather Wednesday evening and overnight Wednesday night over western Minnesota:

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NWS Storm Prediction Center

If any severe weather warnings are issued, you can hear them on the Minnesota Public Radio network.

You will also read about any watches or warnings on the MPR News live weather blog.

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Thursday rain chance

Scattered showers are possible over Minnesota on Thursday, and an isolated thunderstorm could also pop up in the afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern on Thursday:

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NOAA NAM simulated radar Thursday and Thursday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

The loop shows the general pattern of rainfall, but it will probably rain in some spots that look dry in the forecast loop.

Temperature trends

Highs will be in the 70s for much of Minnesota on Thursday, but the northeast will see mostly 60s:

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70s will be common on Friday:

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Mid to upper 70s are expected in the Twin Cities metro area this weekend.

Hurricane Franklin

Tropical Storm Franklin became a hurricane Wednesday afternoon.

This is how Franklin looked from above:

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NOAA visible satellite loop Wednesday

Hurricane Franklin is moving toward the coast of Mexico.

Here's an update on Hurricane Franklin, from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 13A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017

700 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

...STRENGTHENING HURRICANE FRANKLIN HEADING FOR THE COAST OF

MEXICO...

...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SOON...

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.2N 95.4W

ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO

ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The coast of Mexico south of Puerto de Veracruz to Puerto Dos

Bocas

* The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and

property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was

located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 95.4 West. Franklin

is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the

forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to cross the

coast of the Mexican state of Veracruz later tonight or early

Thursday.

An Air Force plane is approaching the hurricane and preliminary

reports indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased

to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional

strengthening is expected until the center crosses the coast. Rapid

weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140

miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force

plane was 983 mb (29.03 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum

amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of

Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo,

Queretar and eastern San Luis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains

will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and

mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within

the Hurricane Warning area tonight. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the

Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of

Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within

the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are

expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Mexico by

this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by

as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the

immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes

landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the

surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Franklin's projected path looks like this:

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National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center will issue updates on Franklin every few hours.

Busy hurricane season?

NOAA has updated its hurricane season outlook:

In Wednesday's update,  NOAA notes that this could be the most active hurricane season since 2010:

Today NOAA issued the scheduled update for its 2017 hurricane season outlook. Forecasters are now predicting a higher likelihood of an above-normal season, and they increased the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes. The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010.

Forecasters now say there is a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season (compared to the May prediction of 45 percent chance), with 14-19 named storms (increased from the May predicted range of 11-17) and 2-5 major hurricanes (increased from the May predicted range of 2-4). A prediction for 5-9 hurricanes remains unchanged from the initial May outlook.

According to NOAA:

In just the first nine weeks of this season there have been six named storms, which is half the number of storms during an average six-month season and double the number of storms that would typically form by early August. An average Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1-November 30, produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Of course, we don't know if any hurricanes will hit the U.S. this season.

Forecasters will continue to watching tropical weather patterns closely in the coming weeks and months.