Warmer and more humid, chance of a shower or thunderstorm
It really feels like the Fourth of July.
Temperatures will be in the 80s in most of Minnesota this Tuesday afternoon, and dew points will rise into the 60s.
Northeastern Minnesota will see high temps in the 70s.
Thunderstorm chances
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Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible this Fourth of July.
The forecast models don't agree on the timing or location of the thunderstorms.
Of course, there's a lot of interest in the possibility of rain during this evening's fireworks.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model shows the main area of thunderstorms over northern Minnesota at 9 p.m. today, with scattered t-storms near the Twin Cities metro area:
Do you want a second opinion?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model doesn't show any rain near the Twin Cities at 9 p.m. today:
With today's weather pattern, forecast models often have a difficult time with the timing and the location of thunderstorms.
The atmosphere will be unstable over Minnesota this afternoon and this evening, so scattered thunderstorms will be possible virtually anywhere in our state.
The NAM model does show an impressive area of thunderstorms moving across Minnesota overnight tonight:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.
It will rain in some areas that look dry on the simulated radar loop.
Severe weather outlook
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather over parts of western Minnesota for this Fourth of July and also overnight tonight:
A marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.
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Midday update
The Storm Prediction Center of the NWS has updated part of northwestern Minnesota to the slight risk category, which indicates that scattered severe weather is possible this Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night:
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Warmer temps
Highs Wednesday will be in the 80s over most of Minnesota:
A few spots in the southwest could touch 90.
On Thursday, much of southern Minnesota will see lower 90s:
The Twin Cities metro area will have highs in the lower 90s Thursday, then around 80 Friday through Sunday.
Bumpy weather on Thursday?
There will be plenty of hot and humid air over southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Thursday.
A cold front could ignite some strong or severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather in much of eastern Minnesota Thursday and Thursday night, with an enhanced risk of severe weather to our east:
A slight chance means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, an enhanced risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms are possible:
Check for forecast updates as we get closer to Thursday.