The wildfire-climate change feedback loop

Nearly 40 large wildfires and over 100 new fires are burning across the western USA right now.

7 20 fires
US Forest Service data

Wildfires are increasingly causing disruptions to people. Thousands have been forced to evacuate by the Mariposa Fire near Yosemite National Park.

The climate change-wildfire link

Wildfires have always been a part of the American landscape. But recent data shows some worrying links between even small climate changes and dramatic increases in wildfire activity. Just a few degrees rise in temperatures in the western U.S has exponential impacts on wildfire activity. The data is as alarming as it is clear.

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Climate Central analyzed 45 years of U.S. Forest Service records from the western U.S.. They found large fires on Forest Service land are increasing dramatically. The average number of fires over 1,000 acres each year has more than tripled since the 1970s.

This week on MPR News Climate Cast, I asked wildfire and climate expert Dr. Michael Flannigan from the University of Alberta in Canada about those trends.

It's a climate change wildcard. What are the precise future atmospheric effects of losing significant forests through the documented increase in wildfires? As the landscape changes, the interaction between forests, climate and weather patterns may be difficult to pinpoint. It’s another reason why some call climate change, The Grand Experiment.

2017: 2nd hottest year on record globally so far

NOAA reports that the first half of 2017 is the 2nd warmest year on record globally. Global through June ran 1.64 degrees F above the 20th-century average. This is just 0.29 of a degree behind the record set in 2016.

This data is a surprise to many climate scientists who expected cooler global temperatures this year after last year’s El Nino faded away. Typically the warmest years in the global temperature record are El Nino years. So it’s a surprise to see 2017 trending close to last year’s record.

We’ve just had an unprecedented string of 3 consecutive “warmest years on record globally.” 2017 is on pace to be the 2nd warmest year, warmer than 2014 and 2015.