Lovely dry Monday, steamy and then stormy Tuesday

The only blip on the Minnesota weather map this morning is fog and low stratus clouds north of the Twin Cities from Rush City, Mora and McGregor north to the Duluth area. That fog will dissipate and the clouds will thin under the July sun.

Today will be a repeat of Sunday's comfortable humidities, but with more sunshine and maybe a couple more degrees on afternoon thermometers. Look for high temperatures this afternoon from the mid 70s to low 80s, except cooler along the North Shore. The Twin Cities will be mostly sunny with a high near 80, dew points in the upper 50s and a light southeast wind.

July 24 - mpx wx story
Upcoming weather for the Twin Cities metro area. Twin Cities National Weather Service

Look for a skinny crescent moon, technically a two-percent waxing crescent, today. It has risen in the east but will be most easily visible low in the western sky shortly after sunset this evening.

Hot and steamy Tuesday

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Heat and humidity will return quickly tomorrow. High temperatures will rise into the 80s and low 90s. Even some mid 90s are likely in parts of west central Minnesota around Montevideo. And there will be abundant humidity with dew points climbing through the 60s into some low 70s.

The Twin Cities should heat to about 90 tomorrow with a dew point up to about 70 or a bit higher. That is into the oppressive category.

Severe storms?

Combining tomorrow's heat and humidity with an advancing cold front and upper level support will yield a very good chance of thunderstorms. Scattered thunderstorms might pop up here and there tomorrow afternoon, but the main event is likely to hold off until tomorrow evening and overnight. A slight risk of severe storms has been posted for all of Minnesota except the southeastern and northwestern corners.

July 24 - Tue svr outlook
Risk of severe weather late Tuesday and Tuesday night. NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Possible flooding

The biggest weather concern later tomorrow might turn out to be flooding. Forecast models are indicating that the moisture content will be high, not just at the surface as measured by dew point but also vertically up the atmospheric column. Slowly-moving storms continuing well into Tuesday night could cause some excessive rainfall and lead to flooding.

July 24 - exc rainfall outlook
Excessive rainfall outlook for Tuesday and Tuesday night. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Thunderstorm rainfall amounts are quite challenging to predict. Local accumulations depend greatly on whether successive storms strike the same areas or cover new ground. But it does seem likely that some locations in central and southern Minnesota will pick up multiple inches of rain.

July 24 - Tue rainfall fcst
General forecast of rainfall amounts for Tuesday and Tuesday night. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Drying out Wednesday

Some showers and storms might linger into Wednesday morning, mainly in southeastern Minnesota. Then look for dry, comfortable weather behind a cold front from later in the day on Wednesday well into next weekend.

July 24 - wed fcst map
Forecast surface weather map for Wednesday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Elsewhere, in the eastern Pacific Ocean

While the Atlantic ocean is currently free of tropical storms, the eastern Pacific is quite active with one hurricane (Hilary) and two tropical storms. All three storms should track generally westward and not threaten Mexico.

July 24 - Pac trop storms
Busy tropical activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean. NOAA National Hurricane Center