Best shower chance north on Saturday; a beautiful Sunday
This holiday weekend lasts through Tuesday for many people.
That's a good thing, because much of northern Minnesota will see some Saturday showers.
There could even be some thunderstorms, especially late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening in northeastern Minnesota.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern:
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The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.
It'll probably rain in some spots that look dry on the loop, but the general trend is for the best chance of rain to stay in northern Minnesota through Saturday afternoon and evening.
Sunday and Monday should be rain-free for most of Minnesota.
Looking ahead, Minnesotans could see some scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm on the Fourth of July.
One forecast model shows that the best chance of rain on July 4th would be over southwestern Minnesota.
Check back for updates.
Where does it rain on July 4th?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has posted an interactive national map that shows the typical odds of seeing rain on the Fourth of July.
It uses rain data from 1981 through 2000, and shows the percentage of years that each spot saw at least one-tenth of an inch of rain on July 4th.
It's interesting that parts of Florida and New England tend to be much more rainy on the Fourth of July than Minnesota!
Temps are trending slowly up
Most of Minnesota will see Saturday afternoon highs in the 7os, with a few spots in the south reaching the lower 80s. Far northern Minnesota will have highs in the 60s.
On Sunday, 70s will be common statewide:
A few spots in southern Minnesota and in the Twin Cities metro area could touch 80.
80s are possible on Monday in about the southern half of Minnesota, with 70s north:
Highs on July 4th reach the 80s in most of Minnesota:
Northeastern Minnesota will see highs in the 70s.
In the Twin Cities metro area we could reach the mid 80s on Wednesday, and the upper 80s on Thursday and Friday.
Our average high temp is 83 degrees this time of year in the metro area.
A warm June
The results are in, and it was officially a warmer than normal June in the Twin Cities metro area.
The average temperature for June 2017 was 2.4 degrees above normal at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport:
It is interesting that during the first 17 days of June, there weren't any days that were cooler than normal in the Twin Cities:
The "DEP" column shows how the average temperature of each day compares to normal.
Negative numbers indicate cooler than normal daily temps
The cool days during the last part of June weren't enough to overcome the warmth that we saw in early June.
July outlook
The July temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center of the NWS shows a slight tendency for a warmer than normal July in Minnesota:
Some cool days can be expected, but the average temp for the entire month of July could be warmer than normal.
NOAA's Global Forecast System model is showing some highs in the 90s for the Twin Cities near the middle of July.