A shower and thunderstorm chance, pleasant temps
Our average high temperature is 83 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities.
We'll probably reach at least 80 this Fourth of July in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota, with some 70s in the northeast.
We had to put the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in our July 4th forecast this year, so you'll want to be prepared for the possibility of some rain.
Minnesotans won't see any all-day rains.
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An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible in some areas, mainly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather Tuesday and Tuesday night for western Minnesota and parts of central and south-central Minnesota:
It would be good to be aware of which county you are in, since any warnings are issued by county.
Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network , and you can also read about any watches and warnings in the MPR news live weather blog.
Speaking of severe weather, it looks like a cold front could ignite some strong to severe thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Thursday afternoon and/or Thursday evening.
We'll keep you updated on that as we get closer to Thursday.
Warming trend
On Wednesday, highs warm well into the 80s in central and southern Minnesota:
Northern Minnesota should see lower 80s.
It gets even warmer on Thursday, with many spots in southern Minnesota hitting 90:
Highs dip a bit statewide on Friday.
In the Twin Cities, we're expecting highs around 80 or in the lower 80s Friday through Sunday.
Fourth of July weather history
The Minnesota State Climatology office has posted a history of our Fourth of July weather.
It can be very hot or quite cool on July 4th, according to the Climatology Office:
Looking back at records dating to 1873 for the Twin Cities, the average high and average low temperatures for Independence Day are 83 degrees F and average low of 64 F, respectively. 2012 came in as the warmest July 4th on record at 101 degrees, this was a part of an extremely warm early July. 1967 recorded the lowest high temperature at 58 degrees, which was the last time the high temperature has stayed below 70 degrees.
Here's what the Climatology Office says about rain:
The most recent washout occurred in 1995, the Twin Cities reported 0.24 inches from 6:00-8:00 PM, with a brief shower at Noon. This has been the lone rain event to disrupt July 4th events in the Twin Cities for the past 50 years. Furthermore, in the Twin Cities area, 79% of years dating back to 1871 have seen less than a tenth or .10 inches of rainfall on July 4th.
I think that we notice rain more when it happens on the Fourth of July!