Severe risk: Storms increasing through tonight
Storms are firing as expected in northwest Minnesota and the Dakotas today. Many models still indicate a line of storms moving across the state from west to east this evening.
By tonight, the line of storms packing high winds and hail races east across Minnesota. If the expected storm wave holds together after dark, it still looks like it could reach the Twin Cities around midnight.
The biggest threats for Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota tonight are severe storms with high winds and hail, a few tornadoes possible. I’m less concerned about flooding overall — most of the models keeping rainfall at or under 2”-3” in most spots, but locally higher totals may occur.
Timing the storms
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Severe weather timing is among the most difficult of the meteorological arts. Severe storms operate on much shorter time scales than cool season rain and snow events. The life cycle of a typical thunderstorm is about 30 minutes. Storms may up-cycle, down-cycle, then up-cycle again as a storm line races across the state.
That's why meteorologists lay out a more general storm scenario days in advance, then slave over a hot Doppler in "nowcast" mode as the storms roll across the screen and the warnings fly. A storm may produce rotation in minutes, or spawn a 70 mph gust front.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) still clings to the idea of a line of potentially severe storms moving across Minnesota this evening and reaching the Twin Cities around midnight.
Enhanced risk west
The odds for severe storms are highest in western and central Minnesota today into this evening. The Twin Cities sports a slight risk, a function of storms likely arriving after dark with fading energy to sustain severe updrafts.
Tornado risk in western Minnesota
One significant data point today: There is enhanced directional wind shear (spin) in west-central Minnesota today. I'd keep an extra eye out around Browns Valley, Ortonville, Morris, Alexandria, Willmar and even St. Cloud for a potential tornadic spin-up late this afternoon into this evening.
Wednesday risk
The storm risk shifts east Wednesday.
We come up for air again Thursday into Friday. The next low-pressure wave brings more thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.
Cooler by the weekend
We'll gradually scour out the heat and humidity by the weekend. Thursday and Friday look like the best days this week overall. Right now, Father's Day looks breezy and cooler.
Keep an eye to the western sky for severe storms tonight.