Shower and thunderstorm chance; cool on Sunday

Meteorologists know that many people pay very close attention to rain forecasts on weekends.

That makes sense, since outdoor activities are often rain sensitive.

Nobody likes soggy picnic plates!

Rain chances

Our Saturday will feature some scattered showers and a few imbedded thunderstorms.

The rain chance in Minnesota will increase from northwest to southeast as we go through the afternoon, and then the scattered showers and t-storms will continue into Saturday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern this weekend:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from noon Saturday through Sunday afternoon, via tropicaltidbits

It will probably rain in some areas that look dry in the radar loop, but the general pattern is illustrated.

By the way, the color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

On Sunday, any shower activity is expected to be very scattered, and an isolated afternoon thunderstorm could pop up in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Severe weather outlook 

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Saturday night in much of Minnesota:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

Weekend temps

Highs in the 70s are expected over much of Minnesota Saturday afternoon, with some spots popping into the lower 80s.

On Sunday, 60s are expected in northern and central Minnesota, with lower 70s in the south:

We won’t have to run our air-conditioners this Father’s Day in Minnesota!

In case you are wondering, our average high this time of year is 80 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Twin Cities highs are expected to be in around 74 on Monday, 76 Tuesday and around 80 on Wednesday and Thursday.

Hot in Phoenix

The high temperature in Phoenix, Arizona will be 110 degrees or warmer both days this weekend.

Monday and Tuesday will be even warmer:

NWS Phoenix

The all time record high in Phoenix is 122 degrees, set back in 1990.

More on the Phoenix heat wave:

NWS Phoenix

This was part of the NWS Phoenix office’s Saturday morning weather discussion:

Some climatology facts. The current record for the number of consecutive days that the max temperature was greater than 118 in Phoenix is 4. Go figure, this record was set back in 1990, the same year we reached the all time high of 122 in Phoenix. The current record for the number of consecutive days that the max temperature was greater than 115 in Phoenix is also 4, and we do have a chance of tying that record next week as temperatures in the Phoenix area are forecast to be above 115 from Monday through Thursday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m. and 9:35 a.m. each Saturday and Sunday.