Stormy weather is brewing

The dry, sun-splashed weather that graced our weekend is now in the rearview mirror. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of them strong or even severe, will sweep across Minnesota this week.

Storms got a running start overnight in the Arrowhead. Duluth had a cold thunderstorm with a temperature of just 43. Early this morning, those storms are tracking off to the east across northernmost Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

May 15 - dlh radar
Weather radar from Duluth National Weather Service early Monday morning.

Storms coming today and tonight

The next round of thunderstorms has been brewing across South Dakota.

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May 15 - ABR radar
Weather radar from the Aberdeen, South Dakota, National Weather Service

This large area of thunderstorms will advance eastward across western Minnesota this morning and likely reach the metro area by early this afternoon. Rain might be a bit spotty, but much of central and southern Minnesota will get wet. The northern third of the state should remain mostly dry today.

May 15 - Mon sfc fcst map
Forecast surface weather map for today. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

More storms will develop Monday night, first across southern Minnesota and then spreading northward. Conditions are coming together such that some of the storms across about the southern third of Minnesota might become severe today or tonight.

In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center has elevated the risk of severe weather to "enhanced" in southeastern Minnesota including the southernmost parts of the Twin Cities metro area, northeastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin, mainly for very strong storms expected this afternoon. "Enhanced" is the third step up the chart of potential severe weather that begins with marginal risk and goes up to high risk.

May 15 - Mon severe risk
Severe weather risk today and tonight. NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Stormy Tuesday

Some thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Then more storms will pop up as we go through the day and Tuesday night. The most favorable locations for storms will depend considerably on earlier storm activity; that is, where previous storms laid down cold pools to inhibit future storm growth or boundaries along which storms can grow.

Much of southern Minnesota again will be in slight risk area for severe storms Tuesday and Tuesday night.

May 15 - Tuesday conv outlook
Risk of severe weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Warm weather will continue through Tuesday

High temperatures on Monday should range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, but cooler in the Arrowhead. The Twin Cities can expect a high of about 80.

Tuesday will be hotter and more humid across southern Minnesota with many locations warming well into the 80s.

Wet but cooler Wednesday

Wednesday should bring numerous showers to our state. It will also bring the beginning of a significant cooldown. Highs should range from around 60 in the north to low and mid 70s in the south.

May 15 - Wed sfc fcst map
Forecast surface weather map for Wednesday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Unseasonably cool Thursday, Friday and next weekend

Thursday is likely to give us a chance to dry out and continue cooling. High temperatures might stall in the mid 50s to low 60s with a Twin Cities metro high around 60.

Friday's high in the Twin Cities might not make it out of the 50s.

And the chance of showers will return for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Some areas are likely to pick up at least 2 or 3 inches of rain during the next week.

May 15 - fcst 7-day precip
Forecast 7-day rainfall totals through 7 a.m. next Monday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center