Spectacular 72 hours ahead; 2nd earliest spring?

Spring is nature's way of saying, 'Let's party!' -Robin Williams

Star magnolia in bloom March 2012
Star magnolia blooms March 2012

Spring is in the air in Minnesota this week. We're about to enjoy the warmest, and arguably the most spectacular 72 hours of weather in five months. Look for wall to wall sunshine from Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures spike into the 70s in much of Minnesota by Saturday afternoon.

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NOAA

Early spring

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By all measures this is yet another early spring in Minnesota. From ice-out to the first red-winged blackbird songs, we are running near records for the earliest spring arrivals this year. Can dandelions and mosquitoes be far off?

Weather Lab lillies rain

Here's a great analysis of our spring phenology from the Minnesota DNR State Climatology Office. By the measure of when the red-winged blackbirds arrived in Minnesota 2017 is the 2nd earliest spring in recent decades.

MN DNR logo

Signs of Spring: Phenology

Spring 2017 began at a rapid pace in Minnesota. The songs of the first red-winged blackbirds of the season were heard in north Maplewood on Sunday, March 5, nine days earlier than the median date of March 14. This is the second earliest the musical birds have returned to the marshes of Maplewood. Winter made a bit of a comeback with below normal temperatures from March 9th to the 16th. In a rare occurrence, many lakes that were thawed in southern Minnesota refroze. In Maplewood, there was only one lake that was out before the cool down and this was tiny Spoon Lake just north of Highway 36. This lake thawed on March 6th, then refroze on March 10 with ice thick enough to support a basketball-sized rock, and lost its ice cover again on the 23rd.

Warmer conditions returned for the last week of March and the progress of Spring restarted. The frost left the ground in Maplewood on March 29th. April began with above normal temperatures, but sunny days were still hard to come by.

Phenology which is derived from the Greek word phaino meaning to show or appear, is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events that are influenced by environmental changes, especially seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation driven by weather and climate. A new national network of Phenology is being developed. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) will facilitate systematic collection and free dissemination of phenological data from across the United States. Also track the progress of The Ruby-throated Hummingbirds as they migrate north.

Here is some recent spring phenology for a site in Maplewood just north of St. Paul.

2017 spring phenology
Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group

Freshwater Society Ice Out Loon In Sunday

I'm looking forward to serving as emcee again this year for the Freshwater Society Annual Gala this Sunday at The University of Minnesota's Great Hall, Coffman Memorial Union.

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First 70s Saturday

It still looks like we're on track for the first 70s of 2017 by Saturday afternoon.

Sunday rain?

There is still big model divergence in the location of significant rainfall Sunday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System paints the heavier rain in northern Minnesota.

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NOAA GFS model via tropical tidbits.

The Canadian and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models bring it into the Twin Cities.

Stay tuned.