Only in Minnesota: rain, snow and a severe risk

Get ready for another helping of rain. This one may come with a side of severe weather, especially south of the Twin Cities. To the north, keep those snow shovels handy one more time.

Our next low-pressure wave pushes in today. Look for rain to spread across southwest Minnesota this afternoon and arrive in the Twin Cities late this afternoon into this evening. The overall rain zone lingers into Thursday, and changes to wet snow in northeast Minnesota overnight.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System model, via tropical tidbits

Overall rainfall totals look impressive with many one-half inch to 1 inch totals. Another inch of rain will likely fall in southern Minnesota.

Severe storms?

Mesoscale models use higher resolution and tighter time scales to pinpoint weather parameters. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System 3 km resolution model depicts developing clusters of strong to possibly severe storms across southern Minnesota and Iowa late this afternoon into this evening.

Hail and high winds are the primary threat in Minnesota. Tornadoes are possible, especially in Iowa.

NOAA NAM 3km model, via tropical tidbits

The highest risk times for severe storms across southern Minnesota are between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. this evening. Keep an eye on possible watches and warnings late today.

The latest updated risk zone from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center nudges the marginal risk zone right up into the Twin Cities metro area.

NOAA

Snow up north

It’s still cold enough for snow in northeast Minnesota. Look for rain to change to snow tonight from the North Shore toward the Iron Range and Ely.

Magnificent weekend ahead

This weekend still looks amazing. Friday and Saturday feature mainly sunny skies and light winds. Sunday may bring a few clouds and a slight precip chance up north. Temps in the 60s and light winds will feel amazingly good.

NOAA digital temperature output, via Weather Bell

Warmest period in U.S. history

It seems like every year I’m writing about how the United States is setting another warm record. Now the years are adding up to be the warmest in the history of our nation. Capital Weather Gang elaborates on a trend we’ve all been watching, and feeling for years.