Winter storm watch Sunday afternoon into Monday

Minnesotans know that it can snow in March.

We average 10.2 inches of snow in the Twin Cities in March, making March the third snowiest month of the year.

That average is based on a 30 year period (currently 1981-2010) that is shifted every 10 years.

As you might imagine, our Twin Cities March snow totals show quite a range:

Since 2000, the Twin Cities metro area has seen as little as zero snow in March (2010), to as much as 20.4 inches (2006).

So far this month, we've seen one inch of snow in the Twin Cities, but that total is about to rise.

We could see significant snow over much of southern and central Minnesota from Sunday into Monday.

Winter storm watch

A low pressure system passes to our south Sunday and Sunday night, spreading snow across most of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern:

The color bar on the right side of the loop indicates the strength of the signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!

The newest forecast model information shows that the Twin Cities metro area will be near the northern edge of the highest snow totals.

NOAA's Global Forecast System forecast model shows the potential snow totals from Sunday into Monday:

Purple shaded areas are where the model indicates more than 6 inches of snow.

Because there is the potential for 6 or more inches of snow, the National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch from Sunday into Monday for much of southern and central Minnesota:

For the southwestern half of the Twin Cities metro area, the winter storm watch begins at 1 p.m. Sunday and ends at 4 p.m. Monday.  The winter storm watch starts at 7 a.m. Sunday in southwestern Minnesota, and runs until 1 p.m. Monday.

Some watch details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

454 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.A broad area of 4 or more inches of snow is expected along and

southwest of the Interstate 94 corridor in Minnesota to the Iowa

border. Within this broad 4 inch area of snow, a more intense

band of 6 to 9 inches of snow is expected. The heaviest snow with

this system is expected to fall Sunday afternoon into the evening,

though snow will linger into the day Monday. A winter storm watch

is in effect for Sunday into Monday that includes locations along

and west of a line from St. Cloud, to Minneapolis, and Red Wing.

MNZ059-060-068>070-076>078-083>085-091>093-112200-

/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0004.170312T1800Z-170313T2100Z/

Wright-Hennepin-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-

Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-

Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, Chaska,

Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Mankato,

Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea

454 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...Snow moves in Sunday afternoon, with the heaviest

amounts falling late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night before

tapering off Monday morning.

* MAIN IMPACT...Snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with locally

higher amounts possible.

* OTHER IMPACTS...Roads will likely become snow covered Sunday

afternoon into Monday, leading to difficult driving conditions,

including for the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant

snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

A summary, from the NWS:

Check back for updates on this winter storm.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.