Cusp of Spring: A shot at 60 Sunday

Cusp of spring

Astronomical spring begins at 5:29 am CDT Monday.

The weather maps over Minnesota appear ready to cooperate. But not before one more good dumping of snow up north Friday morning.

Milder southerly breezes kick in this weekend across Minnesota. Disappearing snow cover and more sunshine will allow for rapid warming during the daytime. Winds looks light Saturday, and Sunday morning’s breezes ease late in the day. Sunday afternoon looks like the best day in a long time for that long awaited sunset walk. In all, this looks like a great early spring weekend to get out and about across Minnesota.

The early read on April in Minnesota? Slight odds favoring warmer and wetter than average weather.

El Nino returning?

This could favor yet another mild winter next year.

Southerly flow

Wind direction is probably the most important single weather factor in Minnesota. A brisk northwest wind? Bundle up. A stiff southy? Prepare for long lines at your local Dairy Queen.

Saturday features light south breezes. The wind kicks up Saturday night and Sunday morning, but eases in time for the thermal ridge (peak of red dashed lines below) to set up over Minnesota Sunday afternoon at max temp time.

NOAA GFS via tropical tidbits.

The Canadian GEM model and the Euro did a much better job of predicting the magnitude of February’s extreme warmth. Canada’s GEM model pushes upper 50s to 60 degrees into southern Minnesota late Sunday afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 50s look rock solid in the Twin Cities Sunday. If everything falls just right, we could see 60 degrees in the metro around 4 to 5 pm Sunday. Note the 70s and 80s not too far to the southwest. Summer, in March, in Kansas.

Canadian GEM model 2-meter temps via tropical tidbits.

April showers arrive early?

Forecast models are cranking up a potential low pressure system late next week. At this point it looks warm enough for a possibly wintry mix to all rain scenario for much of Minnesota next Thursday and Friday. Northern Minnesota stands the best chance for accumulating snowfall.

NOAA GFS via tropical tidbits.

Signs of more sustained spring warmth?

The upper air pattern across North America is showing signs of a gradual, but sustained spring warming trend in the next two weeks. The upper air flow across Minnesota is more San Francisco than Saskatchewan again next weekend.

NOAA

NOAA 6-10 day outlook favors warmer than average temperatures across a good chunk of the USA lin the days surrounding next weekend.

NOAA

I expect these numbers will go up for next weekend in the Twin Cities, and more sustained warmth looks likely the last week of March into the first days of April. More 60s in our near future? The next two weeks look increasingly warm and wet.

Hello green grass!

NOAA GFS output via IPS Metoestar

Vernal Equinox Monday

The spring equinox arrives Monday at 5:29 am CDT in Minnesota. Did you know that “equilux” – equal daylight of 12 hours actually precedes the equinox?

Here’s more on the equinox from the BBC.

Random useless local music trivia

And finally if you read this far, here’s my totally frivolous Twin Cities music trivia fact this Friday.

suburbs logo

I actually grew up a few blocks from The Suburbs guitarist Blaine John “Beej” Chaney in Deephaven. One day when I was about 13, Beej invited me to his house to see his guitar. He had it hooked up to a color organ that produced vivid colors when we played. So yes, A future MPR meteorologist and future Suburbs guitarist spent some quality time goofin’ on a color organ back in the day.

Here’s one of my favorite Suburbs songs that suits the season. I don’t know who produced this, but JOscar clearly has excellent taste in music, and is well versed in cutting up cool weather time-lapse animations. Fire up the Beejtar, and take it away Chan.

Have a great weekend!