Cooler Thursday; February extended our record warm streak
Our snow missed the February deadline.
The snow that blanketed our Twin Cities metro area lawns Wednesday morning accumulated after midnight Tuesday night.
That means that it counts as March snow, not February snow, in the monthly snow tallies.
The official Twin Cities February snowfall total, as measured at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, stayed at .3".
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That .3" snow total for the month tied the record for lowest February snowfall in the Twin Cities, which was set in 1894.
Seattle and Reno had more snow that the Twin Cities in February, according to the National Weather Service:
Of course, if last Friday's snowstorm had taken a more northerly track, our February snowfall total would have been much higher, and snow lovers would have been much happier!
February warmth
February was 10.3 degrees warmer than normal in the Twin Cities, and it was also the 7th warmest February ever recorded in the Twin Cities.
The February temperature chart, from the Minnesota State Climatology Office, shows that 23 of the 28 days were warmer than normal in the Twin Cities:
Solid red bars in the chart show days that were warmer than normal, solid blue bars are days that were cooler than normal.
The thin red line shows daily high temps, the thin blue line shows daily low temps.
The Twin Cities metro area has now seen warmer than normal monthly temperatures for 18 consecutive months, which is unprecedented according to the Minnesota State Climatology Office :
Minnesota is in the grips of a historic warm streak, now standing at 18 months in many locations, including the Twin Cities.
February 2017 started off relatively tame, with the usual flip-flopping between warm and cold conditions for the first nine days. The 10th, however, kicked off a 2-week spell of significantly warm weather, including a six-day run between the 17th and 22nd that broke numerous records. In the Twin Cities, daily temperatures were above averages on 23 of 28 days, and the average monthly temperature has now been above the 1981-2010 normal for 18 months in a row.
As a month, February 2017 was among the warmest on record across the state. It ranked in the top-10 at Duluth, the Twin Cities, Rochester, and St. Cloud--where it was 3rd warmest since 1895.
The Twin Cities have not recorded average monthly temperatures that were below 1981-2010 normals since August 2015. This is the longest above-average monthly temperature streak of any kind on record in the Twin Cities, though it is worth noting that the "normals" refresh every 10 years, and procedures for calculating them have changed over time. As of this writing, only five months out of the last 33 (back to June 2014) have been below normal in the Twin Cities. The second longest streak on record was 16 months, from June 2011 through September 12.
During the past 18 months, many months were much warmer than normal in the Twin Cities, but April of 2016 was only six-tenths of a degree above normal:
The streak has to end sometime, but I'm not betting on a cool March!
Thursday snow
Another batch of snow could move over southwestern and south-central Minnesota late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
NOAA’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the possible snowfall pattern:
The color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the strength of the radar signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!
The Twin Cities metro area could see a snow shower or flurry Thursday morning.
Cooler Thursday
Highs on Thursday will range from the teens in northwestern Minnesota to the lower 30s over the southeast:
High temps recover slightly on Friday:
A big warmup happens on Saturday, and warm temps linger into Sunday.
Highs in the Twin Cities metro area could hit 50 degrees on Saturday, and the middle 50s on Sunday.
Monday thunder?
NOAA’s Global Forecast System forecast model shows a low pressure system passing through Minnesota on Monday, which will give us warm southerly breezes and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms:
Cooler air moves in on Tuesday, and some spots could see some snow showers.
Snow is depicted by blue areas, rain by green.
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate, not inches of snow or rain!
You have to love March in Minnesota, with the varied forms of precipitation and all the temperature swings.