Very warm today; winter storm watch begins Thursday evening

Breaking records is becoming old hat, with dozens of new record high temperatures around Minnesota over the past five days.

Yesterday's 62 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was a record high temp, and we could tie or break our record high of 57 today:

Highs in the 40s are expected over southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities tomorrow, followed by lower 30s on Friday.

Near-normal temps will probably feel cool after the warm weather of the past couple of weeks.

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Our average high temperature this time of year is only 31 degrees in the Twin Cities!

Snow returns late Thursday

We've only seen three-tenths of an inch of snow in the Twin Cities this month. Our 30-year average February snowfall total is 7.8 inches in the Twin Cities, so we're overdue to see some flakes.

We'll see a lot of flakes late Thursday night and Friday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential  snowfall pattern:

rt0222fcstsfc
NOAA GFS model precipitation from noon Thursday through Friday night, via tropicaltidbits

Blue shaded areas indicate snow, green shaded areas are rain.

The GFS model shows that a foot or more of snow could fall in parts of southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area:

rt0222gfs
NOAA GFS snow totals through Friday, via tropicaltidbits

The precipitation could start as rain or a mix of rain and snow over southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon, then transition to mostly snow Thursday night.

Snow totals would be lower if that changeover to snow is delayed.

The National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches for much of central and southern Minnesota that begin at 6 p.m. Thursday and continue through Friday evening:

rt0222stry
NWS Twin Cities

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

407 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...HIGH END WINTER STORM TAKING AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY

NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG

WINDS...AND BLOWING SNOW...

.A winter storm watch has been expanded to include areas along and

southeast of an Appleton, to St. Cloud, to Mora Minnesota line

from Thursday evening through Friday evening. Snow accumulations

of 6 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts are possible across

the watch area. In addition, northeast winds Friday morning

becoming north and northwest Friday afternoon will gust as high as

40 mph. Blowing snow will further reduce visibilities. If these

winds materialize, blizzard conditions should be expected in open

areas.

The Friday morning and afternoon commutes are expected to be

significantly impacted.

MNZ053-059>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091-092-221815-

/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/

Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Renville-McLeod-

Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-

Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-

Including the cities of Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis,

Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Olivia, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chaska,

Shakopee, Hastings, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur,

Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna,

Fairmont, and Blue Earth

407 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...Rain will turn to heavy snow Thursday evening and

continue through Friday.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 to 12 inches are likely, with amounts

in excess of 12 inches possible.

* WINDS...Northeast to northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40

mph resulting in considerable blowing snow and possible

blizzard conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant

snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model has the highest snow totals shifted southward.

The snow forecast plumes of various versions of NOAA's GFS and North American Mesoscale Forecast System models have snow totals for the Twin Cities (FAA id KMSP) in the 5- to 15-inch range.

rt0222plume
Twin Cities (KMSP) Snow forecast plume, via Iowa State University

Be prepared for the biggest snow totals of the winter season over much of southern and central Minnesota and on into Wisconsin.

According to the Twin Cities office of the NWS, the last time that we received a foot of snow at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was Feb. 20-21, 2011.

Even a half a foot of snow would cause some major traffic problems on Friday, so plan ahead.

We'll keep you updated on the latest computer model info for this snowstorm.