Warnings up in southern Minn., metro as snowstorm nears

The winter storm that we've been talking about for several days is almost here.

The storm track has shifted southward on the latest run of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model:

rt0223fcstsfc
NOAA GFS model precipitation from noon today through Friday night, via tropicaltidbits

This more southerly track was already showing up Wednesday in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model.

I expect a mix of rain and snow to develop later this afternoon over southwestern Minnesota and spread into the metro area this evening. The mix changes to all snow tonight and continues through Friday over most of southern  and east-central Minnesota.

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The highest snow totals will be over southern Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin.

Warnings

The southeastern portion of the metro area is included in a winter storm warning from Thursday evening until Saturday morning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

427 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST

CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

.A blizzard warning is now in effect for south central Minnesota,

including the Mankato area and I-90 corridor. A winter storm

warning now covers the southeast Twin Cities metro area over to

Eau Claire and Chippewa Falls Wisconsin. A blizzard watch remains

in effect from Redwood Fall over to Glencoe, with a winter storm

watch still in effect for most of the Twin Cities and the US-8

corridor in northwest Wisconsin.

Snowfall totals between 12 and 15 inches are expected along and

southeast of a St. James Minnesota to Eau Claire Wisconsin line,

with a very tight gradient in snowfall totals expected northwest

of this main band.

In addition, wind speeds are expected to between 25 and 35 mph,

with gusts around 40 mph in south central Minnesota. This will

lead to significant blowing and drifting as well for south

central Minnesota, where the blizzard warning is in effect

The Friday morning and afternoon commutes are expected to be

significantly impacted.

MNZ063-069-070-077-078-WIZ023>028-231830-

/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/

/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0002.170224T0000Z-170225T1200Z/

Washington-Scott-Dakota-Rice-Goodhue-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-

Chippewa-Eau Claire-

Including the cities of Stillwater, Shakopee, Hastings,

Faribault, Red Wing, Hudson, River Falls, Prescott, Menomonie,

Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire

427 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM

CST SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen has issued

a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow, which is

in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday. The Winter

Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* TIMING...heavy snow will quickly spread in between 10pm and

midnight tonight.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 to 12 inches are expected, with total

falling off quickly north of a New Prague, to Cottage Grove, to

Holcombe Wisconsin line.

* WINDS...Northeast to northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph

resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather

conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow

are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an

emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...

food...and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The winter storm warning extends through southeastern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin.

An early estimate of snow totals for the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul would be an inch or two of snow overnight tonight, with another 2 to 3 inches on Friday.

Lesser snow amounts are expected over the northwestern part of the metro area, where a winter storm watch is in effect.

Blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of southwestern and south-central Minnesota this evening through Saturday morning:

rt0223stry
NWS Twin Cities

Here are some blizzard warning details, from the NWS:

MNZ085-093-231830-

/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/

/O.NEW.KMPX.BZ.W.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T1200Z/

Steele-Freeborn-

Including the cities of Owatonna and Albert Lea

427 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST

SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen has issued

a Blizzard Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to

6 AM CST Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* TIMING...Heavy snow will develop between 8pm and 10pm tonight,

with increasing winds on Friday.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 to 15 inches are expected.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...Northeast to northwest 25 to 35 mph with

gusts to 45 mph resulting in considerable blowing snow and

possible whiteout conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are

expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds

and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout

conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If

you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get

stranded...stay with your vehicle.

Updates

Minnesota Public Radio will keep you updated on the winter storm as it continues to develop.

Updated weather information will also be posted on the MPR news live weather blog.

You can also check with the Twin Cities office, La Crosse, WI office and Sioux Falls, SD office of the National Weather Service for weather updates. The NWS sites have clickable maps for the forecast at your specific location.

The Minnesota Department of Transportation will have current road conditions.