Snowcover view from space; forecast model review

We all know that Friday's snowstorm was a big deal in southern Minnesota, but a no-show in most of the Twin Cities metro area.

Some parts of the south and east metro had minor snow accumulations on Friday, but most of the metro area didn't see any snow.

The view from space this Saturday morning shows the sharp cutoff of Friday's snowstorm.

We go from no snow over most of the metro area, to a deep snowcover over much of southern Minnesota and Wisconsin:

Political Coverage Powered by You

Your gift today creates a more connected Minnesota. MPR News is your trusted resource for election coverage, reporting and breaking news. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

rt0225sat2
NOAA, via College of DuPage

You can also see some clouds moving into western central Minnesota early this Saturday morning.

Notice the bare ground from the metro area westward. That is where highs should pop into the lower 30s this afternoon. Temps will probably stay in the 20s Saturday afternoon in the parts of southern Minnesota that have deep snowcover.

Here's a closer look at the sharp cutoff in the snow amounts, courtesy of the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service:

rt0225stry
NWS Twin Cities

I know that many snow lovers in the Twin Cities are disappointed by the lack of snow on Friday, but some people are very happy that they had smooth commutes to and from work.

Friday snow totals

Snow totals were impressive in southern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin on Friday:

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

821 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

...Updated Snowfall Reports...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date

Kenyon                       15.5 in   0250 PM 02/24

2 N Zumbrota                 14.0 in   1000 AM 02/24

Goodhue                      13.5 in   0445 PM 02/24

Albert Lea                   13.0 in   0420 PM 02/24

1 S Waseca                   12.8 in   0430 PM 02/24

Mapleton                     12.7 in   0500 AM 02/24

Stockholm 2NE                12.7 in   0800 AM 02/24

Red Wing                     11.0 in   0630 PM 02/24

Augusta 4NW                  11.0 in   0700 AM 02/24

Nerstrand 4E                 10.3 in   0700 AM 02/24

Eau Claire                   10.1 in   0409 PM 02/24

7 E Dennison                 10.0 in   1115 AM 02/24

Pine Island                  10.0 in   0900 AM 02/24

Owatonna                     10.0 in   0800 AM 02/24

Elk Mound 4 SE               10.0 in   0800 AM 02/24

Altoona                      10.0 in   0144 PM 02/24

Janesville                   9.5 in    0800 AM 02/24

Downsville                   9.5 in    1000 AM 02/24

Geneva                       9.3 in    0248 PM 02/24

Ellendale                    9.2 in    0700 AM 02/24

Winnebago                    9.0 in    0800 AM 02/24

8 NE Myrtle                  9.0 in    0722 AM 02/24

Amboy                        8.5 in    0825 AM 02/24

5 SSW Chippewa Falls         8.5 in    0223 PM 02/24

1 SSW Vernon Center          8.0 in    0835 AM 02/24

Welcome                      8.0 in    1130 AM 02/24

1 WSW Faribault              8.0 in    0620 AM 02/24

Bricelyn                     7.8 in    0700 AM 02/24

1 W Spring Valley            7.5 in    0700 AM 02/24

Mankato                      7.0 in    1245 PM 02/24

Fairmont                     7.0 in    0700 AM 02/24

6 SW Bloomer                 7.0 in    0600 AM 02/24

Wells                        6.0 in    0800 AM 02/24

Lake Crystal                 5.5 in    1000 AM 02/24

St. James                    5.5 in    1239 AM 02/24

Jim Falls 3 NW               5.1 in    0630 AM 02/24

Holcombe                     5.0 in    0700 AM 02/24

Cedar Falls (Hydro Plant)    4.5 in    0700 AM 02/24

Blue Earth 1S                4.4 in    0800 AM 02/24

1 E Northfield               4.2 in    0825 AM 02/24

2 NW North Mankato           3.5 in    0626 AM 02/24

Northfield 2NE               2.1 in    0655 AM 02/24

Boyceville 3NNE              1.8 in    0700 AM 02/24

Rice Lake                    1.5 in    0800 AM 02/24

Big Falls Hydro              1.5 in    0700 AM 02/24

Baldwin                      1.5 in    0700 AM 02/24

Hudson                       1.5 in    0100 PM 02/24

Chetek 2SE                   1.2 in    0600 AM 02/24

Sveadahl 5NNW                1.1 in    0700 AM 02/24

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying

equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered official.

And to the southeast:

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

1231 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

...Snowfall Reports...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon

...Iowa...

...Mitchell County...

Osage                        7.2 in    0833 PM 02/24   43.29N/92.81W

...Minnesota...

...Houston County...

2 ENE Mound Prairie          3.0 in    0900 PM 02/24   43.80N/91.41W

...Olmsted County...

2 SW Rochester               13.9 in   0900 PM 02/24   43.99N/92.50W

Rochester AP                 10.2 in   1222 AM 02/25   43.91N/92.50W

...Wabasha County...

Zumbro Falls                 16.0 in   1127 PM 02/24   44.28N/92.42W

Wabasha                      15.0 in   0943 PM 02/24   44.37N/92.05W

Reads Landing                14.0 in   1041 PM 02/24   44.40N/92.08W

...Wisconsin...

...Jackson County...

Hatfield                     8.0 in    1040 PM 02/24   44.41N/90.73W

...La Crosse County...

NWS La Crosse                5.5 in    1208 AM 02/25   43.82N/91.19W

La Crosse Regional Airport   3.4 in    1147 PM 02/24   43.86N/91.27W

La Crosse 5SSE               3.1 in    1120 PM 02/24   43.75N/91.19W

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying

equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered official.

GFS model shifted

Much has been made of the "busted" snow forecast for Friday in the Twin Cities metro area.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model that came out early on Monday Feb. 20 did a decent job.

It showed that the highest snow totals through Friday would be over southern Minnesota, but it had several inches in the southern part of the Twin Cities:

rt06zfeb20
NOAA GFS model from Feb. 20 showing snow totals through 6 p.m. Friday Feb. 24, via tropicaltidbits

By Tuesday, the GFS shifted the heaviest snow northward to include the Twin Cities:

rt06zfeb21
NOAA GFS model from Feb. 21 showing snow totals through 6 p.m. Friday Feb. 24, via tropicaltidbits

Early on Wednesday Feb. 22, the GFS model was still showing heavy snow accumulations over the Twin Cities metro area for the Friday storm, and significant snow into central Minnesota:

rt06zfeb22
NOAA GFS model from Feb. 22 showing snow totals through 6 p.m. Friday Feb. 24, via tropicaltidbits

Early Thursday, the GFS shifted the highest snow totals south again:

rt06zfeb23
NOAA GFS model temps for the Twin Cities, via MeteoStar

Despite the GFS "correction" on Thursday, it was still showing too much snow for Friday in the Twin Cities metro area.

The GFS still indicated that there would be some minor accumulation in the northwestern part of the Twin Cities  metro area, and several inches of snow in the southeast metro.

Most locations in the northwestern part of the Twin Cities metro area saw no snow on Friday, and some spots in the southeast and east metro reported some minor snow accumulations.

Forecasters use several different forecast models, but the fact that the GFS model runs on Tuesday and Wednesday showed too much snow for the Twin Cities metro area contributed to the inaccurate snow forecast.

Throughout the week, NOAA's North American Mesoscale forecast model also showed too much snow for the metro area and the heaviest snow accumulations too far to the north.

The European (ECMWF) model did a better job than the GFS, and a much better job than the NAM, of predicting the area of highest snow totals from this week's storm.

NWS developers always look at forecast model performance, and they tweak the forecast models from time to time.

The GFS model may handle a similar storm much better next time.

In defense of the GFS forecast model, it has done a great job of predicting areas of snow and rain this winter, even when the Twin Cities metro area was right on the edge of the precipitation.

Snow showers

NOAA's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows some areas of light snow moving across northern and central Minnesota this Saturday afternoon, Saturday night and Sunday:

rt0225fcstsfc
NOAA NAM model simulated radar Saturday afternoon through Sunday, via tropicaltidbits

The Twin Cities metro area could even see a passing snow flurry anytime from Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.