Plenty of Friday sun; Saturday snow north
This is another sunglasses day, and highs will be slightly warmer than Thursday's highs. Radar should stay snowflake free.
Snow one year ago
One year ago today, residents of southern and central Minnesota were digging out from a snowstorm. The Twin Cities metro area had an official total of 9.4 inches from Feb. 2 into early Feb. 3 of 2016.
New Hope and Lakeville had over a foot of snow from the storm.
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We see an average of 7.8 inches of snow in the Twin Cities during February.
Our Twin Cities February snowfall totals have been well above normal in three of the past four years:
2016, 12.1 inches
2015, 4.9 inches
2014, 18.4 inches
2013, 15.1 inches
February 1962 was the snowiest February in Twin Cities history, with 26.5 inches of snow.
Milder temps
Highs today will be in the teens over northern Minnesota, with some lower 20s in the south.
Southern Minnesota will see highs in the 30s on Saturday:
Northern Minnesota will top out in the 20s.
On Sunday, northern Minnesota will see highs in the teens, and central and southern Minnesota will have afternoon highs in the 20s:
Our average high temp is now 26 degrees in the Twin Cities.
Saturday flakes
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows a low-pressure system tracking across Minnesota on Saturday, spreading snow over much of central and northern Minnesota:
The color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the strength of the radar signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!
Parts of northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin could see 2 or 3 inches of snow. There's a chance of light snow or flurries in the Twin Cities on Saturday, especially late in the day.
Tuesday snowstorm?
The latest run of NOAA’s Global Forecast System model continues to show a low-pressure system passing to our south next Tuesday through Tuesday night, dropping snow over much of Minnesota and Wisconsin:
If this forecast model is correct, most of Minnesota and Wisconsin will see enough snow to shovel and plow.
Southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area could see a wintry mix of rain/sleet and snow early Tuesday, then a changeover to all snow.
A slightly more southerly track of the low-pressure system would generate all snow for Minnesota.
At this point, I’d call it a potential winter storm for next Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Forecast maps could change quite a bit as we get closer to Tuesday, so check back for later updates.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.