Feels like April; Monday rain

Our calendars must be broken.

It feels like April all across Minnesota this weekend.

On Saturday, we tied our record high temperature of 58 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.  Our 63 degree high on Friday was a new record, and it was just one degree shy of the warmest February temp ever recorded in the Twin Cities.

Are you ready for more record highs?

Political Coverage Powered by You

Your gift today creates a more connected Minnesota. MPR News is your trusted resource for election coverage, reporting and breaking news. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

Our record high for this Sunday is 57 degrees in the Twin Cities, and that record is in serious jeopardy.

St. Cloud could tie or break their record high of 56 degrees today.

Highs in the 60s are possible this Sunday afternoon in parts of southern Minnesota, with mostly 50s elsewhere. Far northern Minnesota could top out in the upper 40s.

Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area could top 60 degrees this Sunday afternoon.

Monday's high temps will also be very warm:

rt0220h2

50s will be common on Monday, with some spots in southern Minnesota reaching the lower 60s.

Warm February

We all know that this has been an unusually warm February.

How warm?

As of now, our average temperature for the month of February is 8.6 degrees above normal in the Twin Cities metro area.

The preliminary February climate report for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, from the National Weather Service, has the daily temperature details:

rt0219dep2
NWS

The high temperatures for each day are listed in column number 2.

The column labeled “DEP” is highlighted, since it shows each day’s departure from normal.

Days that have positive numbers in the “DEP” are warmer than normal, taking the average of the high and low temperature of each day.

We have tallied 14 warmer than normal days in the Twin Cities this February, and only 4 days that were colder than normal.

Warmer than normal temps are expected today through Thursday.

Thin ice

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources reminds us that:

With the milder weather, ice is deteriorating quickly and creating some potentially dangerous conditions. Ice that has thawed and refrozen is only HALF as strong as new, clear ice!

Ice conditions will continue to deteriorate the next several days, as temperatures stay well above normal.

Monday rain

Minnesota will see some periods of rain on Monday, and there's also a chance of a thunderstorm.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows Monday’s possible rain pattern:

rt0219fcstsfc2
NOAA NAM model simulated radar Monday and Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

Snow possibilities

I’m sure that many snow lovers are looking for a chance to use their skis, sleds and snowmobiles again.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows that we could see some snow from late Thursday into Friday:

rt0219fcstsfc
NOAA GFS model precipitation from Thursday evening through Friday, via tropicaltidbits

Blue shaded areas indicate snow, green shaded areas are rain.

Parts of southern Minnesota could see rain or a wintry mix initially, then a changeover to snow.

The European forecast model shows a more northerly track of the low pressure system, which would mean that more of Minnesota would see some snow.

This potential snow event is still several days away, so check later forecasts.

We’ll keep you updated on changes in the forecast models as we get closer to Thursday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.