Snowy siege ends today; arctic chill and a January thaw next
This week is like a sick test of winter driving skills in Minnesota.
Our three-day snow siege ends today as the last in a series of clippers sails through. The good news? No more falling snow for rush hours the rest of this week. The not so good news? Temperatures head south once again with more subzero nights on the way this week.
Last clipper
Today's morning snow swipe mercifully sails east away from Minnesota. Sufficiently arctic high pressure builds in by Friday morning, the coldest morning for the next two weeks, and maybe the rest of winter? A guy can dream.
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Cold first
We bottom out Friday morning. It still looks like the Twin Cities inner metro core deals with minus 10 or so, with temps to minus 20 and colder to the north. That should keep the mosquitoes at bay for a few more weeks.
Pacific breeze
What warms Minnesota up in winter? Upper winds blowing off the relatively warmer Pacific Ocean. Check out next week's upper air map. The polar front jet stream takes another Canadian vacation.
Temps pulse through the 30s next week, probably peaking a week form Saturday. This thaw looks to last most of next week.
Ice free roads? What a concept.
Most of the eastern half of the United States looks very mild next week.
Winter Misery Index: Mild to moderate
So far this winter has been fairly close to average overall. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources State Climatology Office has this update on where we stand with the dreaded Winter Misery Index.
As of January 10, 2017 the WMI for the 2016-17 winter is at 41 points: 19 points for cold, 22 points for snow. This is enough for this winter to be in the "mild" category. Fourteen more points are needed for this winter to be categorized as "moderate."
The WMI for the winter of 2015-16 finished with 47 points, enough for 2014-15 to be categorized as a "mild" winter. The WMI points for the 2015-2016 winter were 18 for cold and 29 snow: 46 points. The winter of 2016-17 should easily pass last winter in points.
The WMI for the winter of 2013-14 in Twin Cities was 207 points, or in the high end of the "severe winter" category. This was the 9th most severe winter on record based on WMI points. The lowest WMI score was the winter of 2011-2012 with 16 points. The most severe winter is 1916-1917 with 305 WMI points.
Note, this could also be called the "Winter Fun Index" depending on your perspective!
Mild February?
NOAA's Climate Forecast System is still leaning milder than average overall for February.
Stay tuned.