Rare sun sighting, models backing off subzero February cold?

A rare an unusual bright light shined in the sky over Minnesota today. The odd looking object caused people to wince in the brightness, and search for long lost Ray Bans. Ice cream sales spiked. The average pace of walkers in the Minneapolis skyway system doubled.

Clouds parted more than expected over Minnesota today. It was the first sunny day in much of Minnesota since Jan. 19, more than a week ago.

The welcome sunshine ends one of the dreariest runs ever recorded in the Twin Cities in late January. Normally dry arctic air this time of year assures plenty of sunshine. But the period from Jan. 20-25 was the cloudiest on record going back to 1963, according to solar data from the University of Minnesota's Department of Soil, Water and Climate.

Clearly we need more "langleys" around here this month.

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Nice winter weekend

This weekend features some nice winter weather for January. Temperatures stay mostly below freezing, good for winter outdoor activities like the U.S. Pond Hockey Championships on Lake Nokomis this weekend.

Temps moderate a bit the next few days, then we turn moderately colder late next week. Here's the 15-day temperature outlook from Custom Weather.

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Custom Weather

Monday clipper

We'll swat a few snow flurries this weekend, but the next real chance for accumulating snow arrives Monday. This one favors the northern half on Minnesota and Wisconsin. The Twin Cities may just see a few snow showers on the southern edge.

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NOAA GFS model via tropicaltidbits.com

Northern Minnesota likely picks up another 2 to 5 inches Monday. Heavier snowfall totals favor Wisconsin.

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NOAA GFS snowfall output via tropicaltidbits.

Mild again in February?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's longer range models are backing off the notion of significant subzero cold as we move deeper into February. The upper air pattern suggests another "zonal" (west to east) Pacific flow across North America by the second week in February.

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NOAA

NOAA's Global Forecast System is hinting at another potential thaw between about Feb. 8 and Feb. 12.

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NOAA GFS temperatures via IPS Meteostar.

Waters of Carver County

I'm looking forward to taking to watershed managers on Feb. 8 at the Chaska Event Center. Changing precipitation patterns in Minnesota are presenting increasing challenges to city and rural water managers. The event is open to the public. RSVP info below.

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Have a great weekend!