Mild temps today; advisories and warnings start tonight
We're starting 2017 with very mild temps.
Our average high temp for January 1 is 24 degrees in the Twin Cities.
The Twin Cities metro area and southern Minnesota will see highs in the lower 30s this afternoon:
Central Minnesota and some spots in northern Minnesota will top out in the 20s, with upper teens in the northwest.
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Southern Minnesota will have the most sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase later this afternoon.
Winter storm warning starts this evening northeastern MN
A low pressure system moves out of the Rockies later today, spreading snow into Minnesota.
Snow could begin in parts of western Minnesota late this afternoon.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the expected snowfall pattern from 6 p.m. today through 6 a.m. Tuesday:
The color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the strength of the radar signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!
Periods of snow will continue into Tuesday for much of northern and central Minnesota, and winds will pick up on Tuesday.
The Twin Cities metro area and southeastern Minnesota could see periods of snow later tonight, then a mix of snow, rain and freezing rain Monday, followed by a chance of snow Monday night into Tuesday.
The highest snow totals tonight through Tuesday will be over northern Minnesota.
A winter storm warning is in effect for much of northeastern Minnesota from 9 p.m. this evening to 6 p.m. Tuesday:
South and west of the warning area, there is a winter storm watch.
Here are details of the winter storm warning, from the Duluth office of the NWS:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
515 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017
...WINTER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
.A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF MINNESOTA HIGHWAY
200 AND US 2 IN MINNESOTA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR
AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF MINNESOTA HIGHWAY 200 AND US 2 IN
MINNESOTA. THOSE SOUTHERN LOCALES MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO AS
MUCH AS 8 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BY 6 AM MONDAY FROM THE WALKER AND GRAND RAPIDS AREAS NORTH TO
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES...OR
POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE...FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND INLAND...WILL SEE HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES AND AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...ENDING THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL END
FOR MOST AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW AREAS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA MAY SEE SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. SNOWBELT AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY SEE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AFTER THE MAIN SYSTEM
DEPARTS. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THOSE AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH LATER
UPDATES FOR THE NORMAL SNOWBELT AREAS.
MNZ010>012-018>021-026-012115-
/O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0001.170102T0300Z-170104T0000Z/
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-SOUTH ITASCA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY...ISABELLA...
BIGFORK...HIBBING...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...GRAND MARAIS...
GRAND RAPIDS
515 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...
* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY...ISABELLA...
BIGFORK...HIBBING...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...GRAND MARAIS...
AND GRAND RAPIDS.
* TIMING...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES.
* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...TURNING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE ROADS SLIPPERY.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE AT
TIMES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED...AND THAT SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH
PER HOUR OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...EXERCISE
CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. TELL
SOMEONE YOUR TRAVEL ROUTE AND EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME. HAVE A
WORKING CELL PHONE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. KEEP A WINTER
SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE...INCLUDING A FLASHLIGHT...FOOD AND
WATER. IF YOU CHOOSE TO TRAVEL...BE AWARE THAT YOU MAY BECOME
STRANDED AND THAT IT MAY TAKE MANY HOURS FOR HELP TO ARRIVE.
Northwestern Minnesota will also see a lot of snow from this storm:
A winter storm watch is in effect from 6 p.m. today to 6 p.m. Tuesday:
Here are some details of the winter storm watch, from the Grand Forks, ND office of the NWS:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
506 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031115-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0005.170102T0000Z-170104T0000Z/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...ADA...
TWIN VALLEY...HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...KARLSTAD...
LANCASTER...ROSEAU...WARROAD...GREENBUSH...BAUDETTE...WARREN...
STEPHEN...ARGYLE...NEWFOLDEN...MIDDLE RIVER...GRYGLA...RED LAKE...
REDBY...PONEMAH...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...
FERTILE...MCINTOSH...ERSKINE...BAGLEY...CLEARBROOK...BEMIDJI...
MAHNOMEN...NAYTAHWAUSH...WAUBUN...ALIDA...EBRO...LAKE ITASCA...
LONG LOST LAKE...LOWER RICE LAKE...ROY LAKE...UPPER RICE LAKE...
PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...
FERGUS FALLS...PERHAM...NEW YORK MILLS...PARKERS PRAIRIE...
HENNING...BATTLE LAKE...WADENA...MENAHGA...ELBOW LAKE...HOFFMAN...
ASHBY...HERMAN...BARRETT...CANDO...LANGDON...CAVALIER...
WALHALLA...DRAYTON...PEMBINA...NECHE...ST. THOMAS...FORT TOTTEN...
MADDOCK...LEEDS...MINNEWAUKAN...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...
PARK RIVER...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...MCVILLE...ANETA...TOLNA...
GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...HOPE...MAYVILLE...
HILLSBORO...HATTON...PORTLAND...VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON...
ENDERLIN...GWINNER...MILNOR...FORMAN...RUTLAND...WAHPETON...
EDINBURG...ADAMS...LANKIN
506 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
* TIMING...SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF OR
STOP FROM SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON. SNOW WILL THEN
REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, INCLUDING MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT, OF 4 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE MAJORITY OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM MONDAY AND
6 AM TUESDAY.
* WINDS / VISIBILITIES...WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING..
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Less snow, but a wintry mix of snow, rain and freezing rain is expected over southern and central Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area.
A winter weather advisory starts at midnight tonight and continues to 6 p.m. Monday for those areas:
Details of the winter weather advisory, from the Twin Cities office of the NWS:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY.
* EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
DIMINISH AROUND 6 PM MONDAY.
* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A GLAZE ARE EXPECTED.
* LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
* PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE
EVENING COMMUTE ON MONDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING
FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.
You can check with the Duluth office , Grand Forks, ND office and Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service for updates as the snow develops, and updated weather information is also posted here and on the MPR news live weather blog.
The Minnesota Department of Transportation will have current road conditions.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.