Mild temps today; advisories and warnings start tonight

We're starting 2017 with very mild temps.

Our average high temp for January 1 is 24 degrees in the Twin Cities.

The Twin Cities metro area and southern Minnesota will see highs in the lower 30s this afternoon:

rt11h7

Central Minnesota and some spots in northern Minnesota will top out in the 20s, with upper teens in the northwest.

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Southern Minnesota will have the most sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase later this afternoon.

Winter storm warning starts this evening northeastern MN

A low pressure system moves out of the Rockies later today,  spreading snow into Minnesota.

Snow could begin in parts of western Minnesota late this afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the expected snowfall pattern from 6 p.m. today through 6 a.m. Tuesday:

rt11fcstsfc1
NOAA NAM simulated radar from 6 p.m. today through 6 a.m. Tuesday, via tropicaltidbits.com

The color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the strength of the radar signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!

Periods of snow will continue into Tuesday for much of northern and central Minnesota, and winds will pick up on Tuesday.

The Twin Cities metro area and southeastern Minnesota could see periods of snow later tonight, then a mix of snow, rain and freezing rain Monday, followed by a chance of snow Monday night into Tuesday.

The highest snow totals tonight through Tuesday will be over northern Minnesota.

rt11dlhstory
NWS Duluth

A winter storm warning is in effect for much of northeastern Minnesota  from 9 p.m. this evening to 6 p.m. Tuesday:

rt11wrndlh
NWS Duluth

South and west of the warning area, there is a winter storm watch.

Here are details of the winter storm warning, from the Duluth office of the NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN

515 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT THROUGH

WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING

SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR

ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF MINNESOTA HIGHWAY

200 AND US 2 IN MINNESOTA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING

8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR

AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF MINNESOTA HIGHWAY 200 AND US 2 IN

MINNESOTA. THOSE SOUTHERN LOCALES MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO AS

MUCH AS 8 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST

MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE

BY 6 AM MONDAY FROM THE WALKER AND GRAND RAPIDS AREAS NORTH TO

THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES...OR

POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE...FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING BEFORE

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...AND

ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND INLAND...WILL SEE HIGHER

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT

IN LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES AND AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL

SHIFT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES

NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...ENDING THE LAKE

ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL END

FOR MOST AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW AREAS OF NORTHEAST

MINNESOTA MAY SEE SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO

EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION

POSSIBLE. SNOWBELT AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY SEE A

PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AFTER THE MAIN SYSTEM

DEPARTS. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN

THOSE AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH LATER

UPDATES FOR THE NORMAL SNOWBELT AREAS.

MNZ010>012-018>021-026-012115-

/O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0001.170102T0300Z-170104T0000Z/

KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-

NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-

SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-SOUTH ITASCA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY...ISABELLA...

BIGFORK...HIBBING...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...GRAND MARAIS...

GRAND RAPIDS

515 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING

TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY...ISABELLA...

BIGFORK...HIBBING...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...GRAND MARAIS...

AND GRAND RAPIDS.

* TIMING...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES.

* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...TURNING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS

TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE ROADS SLIPPERY.

VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE AT

TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SIGNIFICANT SNOW

ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED...AND THAT SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH

PER HOUR OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...EXERCISE

CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. TELL

SOMEONE YOUR TRAVEL ROUTE AND EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME. HAVE A

WORKING CELL PHONE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. KEEP A WINTER

SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE...INCLUDING A FLASHLIGHT...FOOD AND

WATER. IF YOU CHOOSE TO TRAVEL...BE AWARE THAT YOU MAY BECOME

STRANDED AND THAT IT MAY TAKE MANY HOURS FOR HELP TO ARRIVE.

Northwestern Minnesota will also see a lot of snow from this storm:

rt11gfkstory
NWS Grand Forks, ND

A winter storm watch is in effect from 6 p.m. today to 6 p.m. Tuesday:

rt11wchgfk2
NWS Grand Forks, ND

Here are some details of the winter storm watch, from the Grand Forks, ND office of the NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND

506 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-

026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031115-

/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0005.170102T0000Z-170104T0000Z/

WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-

WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-

EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-

SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-

WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-

PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-

GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-

RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...ADA...

TWIN VALLEY...HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...KARLSTAD...

LANCASTER...ROSEAU...WARROAD...GREENBUSH...BAUDETTE...WARREN...

STEPHEN...ARGYLE...NEWFOLDEN...MIDDLE RIVER...GRYGLA...RED LAKE...

REDBY...PONEMAH...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...

FERTILE...MCINTOSH...ERSKINE...BAGLEY...CLEARBROOK...BEMIDJI...

MAHNOMEN...NAYTAHWAUSH...WAUBUN...ALIDA...EBRO...LAKE ITASCA...

LONG LOST LAKE...LOWER RICE LAKE...ROY LAKE...UPPER RICE LAKE...

PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...

FERGUS FALLS...PERHAM...NEW YORK MILLS...PARKERS PRAIRIE...

HENNING...BATTLE LAKE...WADENA...MENAHGA...ELBOW LAKE...HOFFMAN...

ASHBY...HERMAN...BARRETT...CANDO...LANGDON...CAVALIER...

WALHALLA...DRAYTON...PEMBINA...NECHE...ST. THOMAS...FORT TOTTEN...

MADDOCK...LEEDS...MINNEWAUKAN...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...

PARK RIVER...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...MCVILLE...ANETA...TOLNA...

GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...HOPE...MAYVILLE...

HILLSBORO...HATTON...PORTLAND...VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON...

ENDERLIN...GWINNER...MILNOR...FORMAN...RUTLAND...WAHPETON...

EDINBURG...ADAMS...LANKIN

506 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY

MORNING. THERE IS A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF OR

STOP FROM SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON. SNOW WILL THEN

REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH

TUESDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, INCLUDING MINOR

ACCUMULATIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT, OF 4 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE MAJORITY OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM MONDAY AND

6 AM TUESDAY.

* WINDS / VISIBILITIES...WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH COULD

CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN

AREAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING..

* IMPACTS...PLAN ON HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING

THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Less snow, but a wintry mix of snow, rain and freezing rain is expected over southern and central Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area.

A winter weather advisory starts at midnight tonight and continues to 6 p.m. Monday for those areas:

rt11advmsp2
NWS Twin Cities

Details of the winter weather advisory, from the  Twin Cities office of the NWS:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

6 PM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY.

* EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN

DIMINISH AROUND 6 PM MONDAY.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES AND ICE

ACCUMULATIONS OF A GLAZE ARE EXPECTED.

* LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

* PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE

EVENING COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING

FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

You can check with the Duluth office , Grand Forks, ND office and Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service for updates as the snow develops, and updated weather information is also posted here and on the MPR news live weather blog.

The Minnesota Department of Transportation will have current road conditions.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.