January rain, thaw continues

I'm not used to looking for my umbrella in January.

A low-pressure system warm enough for rain brings a couple rounds of showers to eastern Minnesota through Saturday. The first wave moves north from Rochester, Minn., overnight. The second wave covers more territory Saturday as the parent low moves in.

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NOAA GFS model next week via tropicaltidbits.

Temperatures hover above the freezing mark and should be warm enough for all rain this weekend.

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NOAA GFS 2-meter temps via tropicaltidbits.

Mild through January

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The long range maps continue to favor much above temperatures through the remainder of January. There are signs of a potential cold spike as February approaches.

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Custom Weather

Snow next week?

Medium-range forecast models continue to advertise a stronger and slightly colder low pressure system next week. Both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System bring a potential rain to snow scenario across Minnesota next Tuesday and Wednesday.

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NOAA GFS model next week via tropicaltidbits

It's still too early to pin down snowfall ranges, but the potential for plowable snow appears to be growing next week.

Seeley: January thaw

We get January thaws in Minnesota about 80% of years overall. Here's more detail and a preview from Mark Seeley in this week's Weather Talk.

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Topic:  Reversal of January Temperatures

The proverbial January Thaw (two or more consecutive days with daily high temperatures greater than freezing) for the Twin Cities has about an 80 percent probability of occurrence (about a 91 percent probability since 1980 with a pronounced urban heat island effect).  This January it is happening to us with an exclamation mark.  We may have up to 10 consecutive days with daily high temperatures above freezing if the forecast through January 26th verifies.

In this context it would be the 5th longest such streak in the Twin Cities climate records surpassed only by 18 days in January 1944, 15 days in January 1942, 13 days in January 1919, and 11 days in January 1880 and 1909. (thanks to NOAA's Michelle Margraf and DNR-SCO's Pete Boulay for pointing this out).

Over 50 Minnesota climate stations have already reported daytime highs in the 40s F this week, including 48°F at both Grand Rapids and Forest Lake on the 18th.  Some record high maximum and minimum temperatures may be reported in the coming days as well.  Some nights may remain above the freezing mark. BTW probably warmest January night in Minnesota history was January 25, 1944 when the low temperature never fell below 40°F at Rochester, the Twin Cities, Fairmont, and Winona.

The end result of this long January Thaw period will likely place mean month January temperatures above normal, marking the 17th consecutive month with above normal temperature values around the state.

Solar jobs booming

Gains in solar jobs continue to be impressive.

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U.S. Department of Energy

Here's more detail on how solar jobs are blowing away employment in the oil and gas sectors from Eco Watch.

U.S. solar employs more workers than any other energy industry, including coal, oil and natural gas combined, according to the U.S. Department of Energy's second annual U.S. Energy and Employment Report.

The solar industry is particularly shining bright.

"Proportionally, solar employment accounts for the largest share of workers in the Electric Power Generation sector," the report, released on Jan. 13, states. "This is largely due to the construction related to the significant buildout of new solar generation capacity." Overall, the U.S. solar workforce increased 25 percent in 2016.

According to the report, solar—both photovoltaic and concentrated—employed almost 374,000 workers in 2016, or 43 percent of the Electric Power Generation workforce. This is followed by fossil fuels, which accounts for 22 percent of total Electric Power Generation employment, or 187,117 workers across coal, oil and natural gas generation technologies.

Wind generation is seeing growth in employment with a 32 percent increase since 2015. The wind industry provides the third largest share of Electric Power Generation employment with 102,000 workers at wind firms across the nation.

Minnesota lawmakers trying to remove solar incentives

Minnesota is experiencing a solar jobs boom. Minnesota lawmakers have introduced legislation that removes solar incentives in Minnesota.

Here's more from the Minnesota House of Representative's Session Daily.

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Solar energy advocates were out in force Tuesday to decry two bills they said would hurt the growing industry. The most direct threat is in HF235, sponsored by Rep. Marion O'Neill (R-Maple Lake), which would repeal the Made In Minnesota program that provides incentives to residents and businesses who own solar panels that was enacted by law in 2013.

Also left on the agenda for consideration late Tuesday was HF113, sponsored by Rep. Jim Newberger (R-Becker). His bill would let Xcel Energy replace one of its coal-fired power plants in Becker with a natural gas plant.

Newberger objected last October when the Public Utilities Commission approved the closure of two of three of Xcel’s so-called Sherco coal plants without recommending a replacement. The bill’s companion is SF85, sponsored by Sen. Andrew Mathews (R-Milaca), which is awaiting action by the Senate Energy and Utilities Finance and Policy Committee.

Earlier the committee approved HF234, sponsored by Rep. Dave Baker (R-Willmar), a bill that would make electrical cooperatives exempt from the Public Utilities Commission. In doing so, Baker said, his legislation would follow the model of how state statutes treat municipal electrical companies.

Several testifiers said it doesn’t make sense for the PUC to insert itself between ratepayers and investors, as it does with other utility companies, because in the case of coops, member-owners are both ratepayers and investors.

Solar industry advocates said the change would remove a venue for hearing complaints by co-op members, particularly those disputing the fairness of so-called net metering fees on individuals generating power with solar panels on their homes or businesses.

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LegiScan

I received this perspective in an email from Ryan Buege with All Energy Solar about how these changes are creating uncertainty among solar markets and investors.

Our biggest fear is that they are planning to pull the rug out from the local solar industry overnight, without properly ramping down the incentives as they had originally committed. The jolt makes planning our business nearly impossible, and it is likely to cost thousands of job in Minnesota in the short term if it succeeds. Not too mention, it will derail jobs that us, our partners, and our competitors planned to add this year and in the year's ahead.

Ironically, the committee approved a bill in the same session that will allow Xcel to bypass PUC approval to build a natural gas plant. The plant will cost well over $1 billion to build, not too mention to operate each year for 40 years, and it's being pushed by a House Rep from Becker because it will maintain 30 jobs at SherCo that would've otherwise been lost 10 years from now. By bypassing the PUC, Xcel is avoiding rate studies and other safeguards that protect Xcel energy consumers before making big decisions like this. http://midwestenergynews.com/2017/01/18/business-consumer-groups-bash-minnesota-utilitys-push-for-new-natural-gas-plant/

Stay tuned.