Drizzle and showers south, wintry mix north

If gray is your favorite color, you'll love the next couple of days.

Dense fog is not as widespread across Minnesota this morning as it was yesterday, but dense fog advisories are in effect this morning for southwestern Minnesota and Traverse and Big Stone counties in west-central Minnesota.

We'll have periods of drizzle and light rain today and tonight in southern Minnesota. Central and northern Minnesota will see a wintry mix at times.

The Duluth office of the National Weather Service has issued a freezing rain advisory until noon today for parts of northern Minnesota, including Brainerd:

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rt120advdlh2
NWS Twin Cities

Here are some advisory details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN

836 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL

MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...

.LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SPREADING THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL AND

NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN SOME FREEZING

RAIN ON ROAD SURFACES. EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY

ABOVE FREEZING...ROAD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE BELOW OR

NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...SO THE RAIN WILL FREEZE ON THE ROAD

SURFACES UNTIL THE ROAD TEMPERATURES WARM UP SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH

BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF SPIN OUTS IN

THE AREA. EXPECT SOME ICING TO CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS

IN SOME AREAS.

MNZ018-025-026-033>036-201800-

/O.NEW.KDLH.ZR.Y.0001.170120T1436Z-170120T1800Z/

NORTH ITASCA-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-CROW WING-

NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BIGFORK...WALKER...GRAND RAPIDS...

PINE RIVER...BRAINERD...HILL CITY...AITKIN

836 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY.

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL

MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE AITKIN...BRAINERD LAKES...AND GRAND

RAPIDS AREAS.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS....GLAZING ON ROAD SURFACES WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL

CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Update

The National Weather Service has expanded the freezing rain advisory into central Minnesota and the northern part of the Twin Cities metro area until noon:

rt120adv2
NWS Twin Cities

Off and on

Our precipitation will be intermittent today through Saturday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern:

rt120fcstsfc2
NOAA NAM model simulated radar from noon today through Saturday, via tropicaltidbits

In the forecast loop, blue areas are where the precipitation is likely to be snow for that time in the loop. Purple areas are sleet or freezing rain. Green areas are likely to be rain, but the rain could freeze at ground level if surface temps are cold enough.

The color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the strength of the radar signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!

Thaw continues

How warm is this January thaw?

Our average high temperature this time of year is 24 degrees in the Twin Cities. So far today, the coldest reading at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has been 35 degrees.

If it doesn't drop below 35 degrees before midnight, we'll tie the record for the warmest Jan. 20 low temperature in the Twin Cities.

Minnesota highs will be mostly in the upper 30s today.

On Saturday, some spots in southern Minnesota could touch 40:

rt121h

Similar highs are on tap for Sunday.

Mild highs are expected next week and beyond.

The temperature outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above normal temperatures Jan. 25 through Jan. 29:

rt120ext
NOAA

Below-normal highs could return for the final two days of January, but this will be another warmer than normal month.

The last time that we had a cooler than normal month in the Twin Cities was way back in August of 2015!

Next snow

Snow lovers are not amused by this long duration January thaw.

Snow conditions for sledding and cross-country skiing will be sloppy this weekend. Outdoor ice rinks won't have ideal skating conditions either.

There's some hope for fresh snow next week!

NOAA's Global Forecast System model shows a low pressure system tracking just to our south next Tuesday and Wednesday:

rt120fcstsfc
NOAA GFS precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday, via tropicaltidbits

Central and southern Minnesota could get enough snow to shovel next week.

We'll keep you updated!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.