Cold lingers; 7 feet of snow and rain drive California flood threat

Status Quo

Welcome to Minnesota's winter version of a summer drought. Lazy high pressure sprawls overhead. Blue skies and weather people babbling about wind chill and the lack of smudges on Doppler. Now, back to your regular programming.

Our current brand of cold gets your attention, but it's not anything to slow most Minnesotans down. In Houston? It would be a civil emergency.

cold-thermo

Your TV blares national weather scenes from California, Atlanta and the Deep South through this weekend. About 7 feet of snow has already fallen in the high Sierra. California's next "atmospheric river" is warmer, and will raise rainfall levels into high elevations where deep snow fell earlier this week. That's a recipe for a potential flood disaster as rain-washed snow melt crashes down mountainsides into the valleys. The Land of All or Nothing.

Political Coverage Powered by You

Your gift today creates a more connected Minnesota. MPR News is your trusted resource for election coverage, reporting and breaking news. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

Meanwhile Atlanta prepares for potential gridlock as 2" to 4" of snow and ice arrives Friday. That qualifies as just another random winter commute in the Twin Cities.

Did I mention it may snow next Tuesday?

Sub-zero

Thermometers across Minnesota continue to pulse either side of zero into Sunday morning. Teens (above zero) will feel noticeably milder by Sunday afternoon.

105-temps
NOAA GFS 2-meter temps via tropicaltidbits.

High and dry

Arctic high pressure cells continue to sprawl over the central USA shoving the storm track into the Deep South. Atlanta and the Carolina's get a dose of wintry weather as we move toward the weekend. The next atmospheric river drives another wave of heavy rain into California.

105-1-gfs
NOAA GFS model via troipcaltidbits

Atmospheric Rivers Pounding California

The snowfall totals are prolific in the higher elevations of the Sierras, where close to 7 feet have already fallen.

Pineapple Express

How do you end a drought? Mark Twain is credited with saying it takes a flood. How about a series of massive atmospheric river-driven storms slamming into California's higher terrain? Storm #1 already delivered up to a foot of rain this week. Here come the next several waves in quick succession.

105-1-ca
NOAA GFS model via troipcaltidbits

Rainfall totals could reach 10" to 15" along the Sierra slopes.

All that rain, on top of heavy snow may generate the worst flood in parts of California in almost 12 years.

At the highest elevations snowfall totals could reach 10 to 15 feet.

This will be a wild weather weekend in northern California. Here's the storm timeline from the Sacramento NWS.

Atlanta snow

Meanwhile, winter storm warnings are up for Atlanta and parts of the Deep South.

Suddenly I'm feeling better about sub-zero temps in Minnesota this week.

Seeley: Roller Coaster start to 2017

One thing about Minnesota weather; it's rarely boring. Here's a preview of some insight from Mark Seeley in this week's Weather Talk.

wt-um-logo

Topic: Roller coaster start to 2017:

Following the conclusion of a very warm year in Minnesota (2016), January of 2017 began warm and wet.  The first few days of the month averaged several degrees warmer than normal.

Temperatures got as warm as 37°F at La Crescent, and 35°F at St James and Two Harbors.

Then a major winter storm crossed the state over January 2-3 bringing a mixture of rain, freezing rain and drizzle, as well as snow, along with high winds.  Several observers reported precipitation totals of 0.20 inches to 0.40 inches.  Many roads and sidewalks in southern counties were coated in ice, leading to a number of accidents. MNDOT advised no travel on some highways over the night of January 2-3 because of ice-coated roads. You can read more about this challenging weather episode at the DNR State Climatology Office web site:

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/170102_03_snow_freezing_rain.html

In the north snow was the dominate form of precipitation as many areas reported 5-10 inches.  Warroad received 13 inches, while Kabetogama reported 14.4 inches.  For January 3rd some observers reported a new daily record snowfall, including:

9.2" at Kabetogama

8.0" at Argyle and Thief River Falls

6.5" at Orr

6.4" at Tower

6.0" at Cook

5.0" at Embarrass

4.5" at Gunflint Lake

With the fresh snow cover and high pressure settling across the state subzero temperatures were widespread.  Some climate stations remained below zero degrees all day on January 4th.  By January 5th many were reported morning low temperatures of -20°F or colder.  It was -33°F at Thorhult (Beltrami County) and -34°F at Embarrass (St Louis County).  The National Weather Service issued Wind Chill Advisories on three consecutive days, as winds over 30 mph pushed wind chill values from -30 to -40 degrees F.  The cold was expected to persist into the beginning of next week.