Areas of dense fog this morning; drizzle and rain tomorrow

Moist air is spreading over much of southern Minnesota this morning.

Aided by the cooling effect of our snow cover, dense fog has formed in some areas.

Dense fog is also reported over northeastern Minnesota.

A dense fog advisory is in effect until noon for much of southern Minnesota, including most of the Twin Cities metro area:

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rt119adv2
NWS Twin Cities

A dense fog advisory also continues until noon for much of northeastern Minnesota:

rt119advdlh2
NWS Duluth

Here are details of the advisory that includes the Twin Cities metro area:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

845 AM CST THU JAN 19 2017

...DENSE FOG EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND THROUGH NOON...

.AN AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS

SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS FROM REDWOOD

FALLS THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES BY 10 AM. THE DENSE FOG WILL SLOWLY

DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE.

MNZ060-062-063-065>068-073>075-082-091-WIZ023-191800-

/O.EXB.KMPX.FG.Y.0001.170119T1500Z-170119T1800Z/

HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-REDWOOD-

BROWN-NICOLLET-WATONWAN-MARTIN-ST. CROIX-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MINNEAPOLIS, ST PAUL, STILLWATER, OLIVIA,

HUTCHINSON, GAYLORD, CHASKA, REDWOOD FALLS, NEW ULM, ST PETER,

ST JAMES, FAIRMONT, AND HUDSON

845 AM CST THU JAN 19 2017

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY.

* VISIBILITY...WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* TEMPERATURES...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...ALLOWING FOR

THE FOG TO FORM FROST ON ROADS CREATING PATCHY ICY CONDITIONS.

* IMPACTS...LOW VISIBILITIES WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT DRIVING

CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE

REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...

USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

Thaw continues

Our January thaw will stick with us for quite a while.

Highs around 40 are expected in parts of southern Minnesota today, with 30s to the north.

All of Minnesota will see highs tomorrow in the 30s.

The Twin Cities metro area will see highs in the lower 40s this weekend.

Our average high is only 24 degrees in the Twin Cities this time of year, so these temps are about 15 degrees above normal.

Forecast maps show that our January thaw will linger through next week.

The end of the month looks mild too, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model:

rt118ext
NOAA GFS data, via MeteoStar

Jan. 29 and Jan. 30 could have highs that are closer to normal, in the 20s.

January flips to warm

Stating the obvious, it's unusually warm right now.

The average daily temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has been warmer than normal the past few days.

The preliminary January climate report for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, from the National Weather Service, has the daily temperature details:

rt119msp2
National Weather Service

The column labeled “DEP” is highlighted, since it shows each day’s departure from normal.

Days that have negative numbers (blue highlight) in the “DEP” are colder than normal, taking the average of the high and low temperature of each day.

We have tallied 9 colder than normal days this January in the Twin Cities, and nine days that were warmer than normal.

Through Jan. 18, our average temp for the month is running 1.6 degrees below normal.

That average monthly temperature will flip well above normal with the warmth of the next eight to 10 days.

Friday rain

We could see some drizzle this evening and light rain overnight.  Some periods of rain are expected tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern:

rt119fcstsfc5
NOAA NAM model simulated radar from 6 p.m today through Friday evening, via tropicaltidbits

A wintry mix of rain/freezing rain and snow is possible over northern Minnesota later tonight and Friday.

In the forecast loop, blue areas are where the precipitation is likely to be snow for that time in the loop. Purple areas are sleet or freezing rain. Green areas are likely to be rain, but the rain could freeze at ground level if surface temps are cold enough.

The color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the strength of the radar signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!