Winter storm warning for NW MN will become a blizzard warning

A strong low pressure system will bring heavy snow and strong winds to much of northwestern Minnesota overnight and Tuesday.

Here’s the simulated radar for Monday night through Tuesday afternoon, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 4km resolution North American Mesoscale forecast model:

rt125fcstsfc2
NOAA NAM 4km model simulated radar from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon, via tropicaltidbits.com

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for much of northwestern Minnesota from Monday night through Tuesday morning, then that same area is under a blizzard warning from noon to 6 p.m. Tuesday:

rt125blz2
NWS Grand Forks, ND

Here are more details, from the Grand Forks, ND office of the NWS:

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND

327 PM CST MON DEC 5 2016

MNZ001-004-007-008-013>015-070000-

/O.NEW.KFGF.BZ.W.0004.161206T1800Z-161207T0000Z/

/O.EXT.KFGF.WS.W.0005.161206T0000Z-161206T1800Z/

WEST POLK-KITTSON-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-

EAST POLK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...

HALLOCK...KARLSTAD...LANCASTER...WARREN...STEPHEN...ARGYLE...

NEWFOLDEN...MIDDLE RIVER...GRYGLA...THIEF RIVER FALLS...

RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...FERTILE...MCINTOSH...ERSKINE

327 PM CST MON DEC 5 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

NOON CST TUESDAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 PM AND THEN DIMINISH

AROUND 6 PM TUESDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY

AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION RATES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR

BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 6AM TUESDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 14 INCHES.

* WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST 30 TO

40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A HALF MILE IN SNOW TONIGHT...BELOW A

QUARTER MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE

EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL

VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. THE LATEST ROAD CsnONDITIONS FOR THE

STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

The double digit snow amounts are for far northwestern Minnesota. The southern part of the warning area, near Moorhead, would tend to have snow accumulations in the 4 to 7 inch range.

The NWS weather glossary defines a blizzard warning as:

Issued for winter storms with sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less. These conditions are expected to prevail for a minimum of 3 hours.

Significant snow is also expected over northeastern Minnesota overnight.

The Duluth office of the National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory, in effect until 6 a.m. Tuesday, for much of north-central and northeastern Minnesota:

rt125dlhadv2
NWS Duluth

Here are more details on that advisory, from the NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN

215 PM CST MON DEC 5 2016

...SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE

NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF

SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE

MIDNIGHT. THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW

SNOW FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY...WITH LOCALLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE

ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED

THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT

TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...RESULTING IN

LOWER AMOUNTS ON THE LAKESHORE. IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING

SNOW...STRENGTHENING WINDS LATE TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING ACROSS NORTHERN

MINNESOTA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BE SURE TO ALLOW SOME EXTRA

TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.

MNZ010-011-018-019-026-060615-

/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0020.161206T0000Z-161206T1200Z/

KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-

SOUTH ITASCA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY...BIGFORK...

HIBBING...GRAND RAPIDS

215 PM CST MON DEC 5 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS

EVENING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING

MUCH OF THE IRON RANGE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

* TIMING...6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INTO

TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW

WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED

ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

You can see updated winter storm information on our severe weather live blog.

Colder temps

Strong northwesterly winds will spread much colder air over Minnesota on Tuesday.

High temps will like happen early on Tuesday, with falling temperatures through the day.

Central and southern Minnesota could see occasional light snow Tuesday, with only minor accumulations.

Wednesday will be windy and cold, with highs in the teens over northern and central Minnesota:

rt127h3

The Twin Cities area should top out at about 21 degrees, which is well below our average high of 30 degrees.

Cold temps stay with us on Thursday and Friday, but winds will be lighter.

High temperatures rebound a bit this coming weekend, with upper 20s possible in southern Minnesota.