Good travel Christmas Eve; Christmas ice to rain

Happy holidays to you and yours from the MPR Weather Lab!

The good weather news? Travel conditions still look very good Christmas Eve and Monday. I wish the weather maps would cooperate a little more for Christmas Day travel, but it could be worse. Yes, Santa will need his "Rain-Deer" and a good weather app this Christmas.

We're still on track for a powerful and unusually warm and wet storm Christmas Day. The latest trends favor a shot if ice moving rapidly north Christmas morning changing to all rain by around midday in the Twin Cities. Further north, significant ice storm is a possibility for I-94 between St. Cloud and Alexandria toward Little Falls. I see a few hours of icy conditions Christmas morning before the change to rain.

All in all we are getting off lucky with the relatively rare Christmas rain. It could be all snow. That would be good news for winter white lovers but a potential travel disaster. At least we don't have to shovel rain.

Storm track: Western solution

The models have been remarkably consistent with the 'western solution' for our Christmas Day storm. That keeps most of Minnesota in the warm sector, meaning a shot of icing Christmas Day followed by all rain. One important factor; winds will howl to 40+ mph at times. This system will be a wind bag.

Euro: Sleet and ice to heavy rain

Freezing rain and sleet pinging off your windows Christmas morning? Lovely. It change to all rain by midday. The rain could be heavy at times. A clap of thunder?

Here's the Euro model solution for the Twin Cities courtesy of the Norwegian Met Institute. Temps in Celsius. Does Santa's route to Minnesota come by way of Norway?

Ice storm?

I could see a quarter inch of ice around Alexandria Christmas morning. How does ice happen? Here's a good look form NOAA.

Multiple travel hazards

We'll get several types of precip around Minnesota this weekend.

Red River Valley: Heavy snow

It stays cold enough for all snow in the Red River Valley and far northwest Minnesota. Blizzard warnings are up for North Dakota.

Flood threat

We could see an inch of rain across much of Minnesota Christmas Day.

Heavy rain falling on snow holding an inch of water content and temperatures surging into the 40s will cause some instant lakes in the streets Christmas night. I spent some quality time yesterday shoveling the storm drains near the Weather Lab. The City of Minneapolis posts this reminder.

Here's a good resource for getting updated travel conditions this weekend.

Unsafe ice

The lack of sustained cold means ice conditions are still sketchy across Minnesota. Rain on Christmas Day will only weaken the ice further. Be careful out there!

Chilly start to 2017?

Temperatures hover in the 20s and 30s next week. There are signs of a colder punch of air around New Year's Day as the upper level flow turns northwest.

That could begin to firm up sketchy ice conditions on area lakes.

Stay tuned.

Safe travels and much joy this holiday season!