Mild week; Friday night flakes?

Our average high for today is 42 degrees in the Twin Cities.

We're shooting for the lower 50s this afternoon:

Every day this month has been warmer than normal for most of Minnesota.

November is typically the cloudiest month of the year in the Twin Cities, but we've only seen 3 days that were mostly cloudy this month.

We'll have more clouds than sun today, but we're not expecting any measureable rain.

Tuesday showers?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale 4 km resolution forecast model shows some showers moving across northern and central Minnesota late tonight and Tuesday morning:

Highs Tuesday could top 60 degrees in parts of southern Minnesota:

Supermoon

According to NASA, today's full moon is bigger and brighter than a typical full moon:

The moon is a familiar sight in our sky, brightening dark nights and reminding us of space exploration, past and present. But the upcoming supermoon — on Monday, Nov. 14 — will be especially “super” because it’s the closest full moon to Earth since 1948. We won’t see another supermoon like this until 2034.

The moon’s orbit around Earth is slightly elliptical so sometimes it is closer and sometimes it’s farther away. When the moon is full as it makes its closest pass to Earth it is known as a supermoon. At perigee — the point at which the moon is closest to Earth — the moon can be as much as 14 percent closer to Earth than at apogee, when the moon is farthest from our planet. The full moon appears that much larger in diameter and because it is larger shines 30 percent more moonlight onto the Earth.

A check with the United States Naval Observatory shows that the moon set at 6:55 a.m. today, and it will rise again at 5:24 p.m. Central Standard Time.

Hopefully, we'll have enough breaks in the cloud cover to see the moon this evening.

Snow late Friday?

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model shows a strong low pressure system over northeastern Nebraska Friday morning:

If the low develops as depicted by the GFS model, Friday will be a windy and rainy day for most of Minnesota.

The rain could change to wet snow Friday night into Saturday for parts of Minnesota, as the low pressure system tracks northeastward.

The best chance of significant snow late Friday and Friday night would be from North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota.

The position of the low on Friday, and the resulting storm track, is still uncertain.

The Twin Cities NWS office posted this summary:

Winter weather awareness

Talk about good timing!

This is Winter Weather Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Today's topic is Winter Storms.

Here is an overview of Winter Storm terminology, from the National Weather Service:

Winter Weather Overview

The National Weather Service issues various products for hazardous winter weather events, to provide the public ample information and time to prepare for potentially life threatening conditions experienced with winter storms.

Hazardous Weather Outlooks: Provide general information on developing winter weather up to a week before it occurs. While specific information, such as snow accumulations, may not be known until a day or two before a winter storm, you should closely monitor future forecasts and statements, and be alert for watches,warnings and advisories when winter weather is highlighted in an outlook.

Winter Storm Watch: Severe weather conditions, including heavy snow, blowing snow, freezing rain and/or sleet , may soon affect your area. if a watch is issued for your area, you should pay special attention to future forecasts and statements, and begin to make safety preparations.

Winter Storm Warning: Severe winter weather conditions are occurring or are imminent. Most warnings are issued for heavy snow and wind, but may also be issued for ice and sleet storms. If a warning is issued for your area you should take immediate action to ensure the appropriate safety precautions have been taken.

Blizzard Warning: Visibilities are reduced to less than 1/4 mile for several hours due to falling and/or blowing snow, making travel virtually impossible. The wind will be at least 35 mph.

Wind Chill: The cooling effect upon exposed skin, produced by the combination of temperature and wind. Note that the wind chill is based on a formula revised in 2001. A copy of the new Wind Chill Chart is available on our web site.

Advisories: These are issued for conditions which warrant increased public awareness and moderately hamper travel, but where the weather is not severe enough to merit a warning.

Despite our warm autumn, we all know that wintry weather will arrive at some point.

It might arrive late Friday for parts of Minnesota.