Blizzard takes aim Friday

Wintry reality check

Minnesota weather can be like a Stephen King novel. Everything is sugar sweet, until the monster suddenly appears.

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Mild sunset in Eden Prairie. Paul Huttner/MPR News

Truth be told though many of us have enjoyed our slow motion suspended animation autumn, but we're ready for a little dose of winter. The snowmobile and skis are restless. Outdoor ice and pond hockey call. Time to put out the driveway stakes.

The latest focus on Friday's inbound snow event is still on western and northern Minnesota. The Twin Cities gets grazed with the first flakes of the season, but any accumulations look light.

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New weather terms magically appear on your smartphone and favorite weather sites the next 48 hours. Snow. Wind. Cold. Blizzard. Blowing and drifting. And yes, wind chill.

Blizzard watch and winter storm watch will be upgraded to warnings in the next 12 hours.

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INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...

MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...GRANITE FALLS

307 PM CST WED NOV 16 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH COULD CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SNOW DRIFTS COULD EXCEED TWO TO THREE FEET IN OPEN COUNTRY.

* TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE...INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY.

Blizzard target zone: Western Minnesota

Forecast models have been remarkably consistent with this one. Both the European and NOAA's GFS models are still locked onto a surface low track just southeast of the Twin Cities metro Friday along an Omaha-Albert Lea-Eau Claire line.

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NOAA GFS model via tropicaltidbits.com

That storm track puts the heaviest snow band across western and northern Minnesota. Snowfall totals over a foot still look likely across northern Minnesota in towns like Grand Rapids, International Falls and Ely.

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GFS snowfall output via tropicaltidbits.com

The Twin Cities stays in the rain zone until Friday afternoon, then mixes with snow. By then though, the bulk of the precipitation shield is pulling out as the storm drives northeast.

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NOAA

Result? Probably just a candy coating at best for most of the metro unless the track shifts to the east. Wind and the season's first shot of sub-freezing cold rush in behind the system Friday and Friday night.

Here's the storm view from the Sioux Falls NWS including southwest Minnesota.

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Northwest Minnesota and the Red River Valley ride the northwest edge of the heavy snow zone.

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Bottom Line: The season's first major winter-like storm will create heavy snow and blizzard conditions for western Minnesota. Northern Minnesota will likely see the heaviest snow totals over a foot. Travel will be difficult to near impossible Friday west and north of the Twin Cities. The season's coldest and MSP Airport's first shot of sub-freezing air follows the storm this weekend.

Stay tuned for updates and any possible storm track changes.

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Graphic: Twin Cities NWS