Weather winning streak; fall colors

I don't think you could order up a better stretch of early-October weather in Minnesota.

Ryder Cup golfers and spectators have enjoyed plenty of sunshine and light winds at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska over the past two days. They'll enjoy gorgeous weather again today for the final day of competition.

A nearby high pressure system will give us Sunday sunshine, with a few patchy clouds.

Highs across Minnesota will be a bit above normal for October 2:

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Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area could hit 74 or 75 degrees this afternoon.

Monday will bring us similar weather, but breezes will pick up in the afternoon

Rain returns

An approaching low pressure system and cold front will spread some showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, into western Minnesota on Tuesday:

rt102allfronts

The rain will spread into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Tuesday night, and continue into Wednesday.

Some spots in Minnesota and western Wisconsin could see over one inch of rain by midday Wednesday.

You can expect gusty winds on Tuesday as well.

Highs will be only in the 50s for much of Minnesota on Thursday and Friday.

Fall color update

Some spots in northern Minnesota are showing peak fall color right now.

The latest Minnesota fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources shows that part of central Minnesota also has some great fall colors:

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Minnesota DNR

We could lose some of those colorful leaves in northern Minnesota on Tuesday and Wednesday, due to winds and rain.

A Wisconsin fall color report is also available.

Hurricane Matthew moves toward Jamaica, Haiti

Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean is a category 4 hurricane this Sunday morning, with max winds of 150 mph. Hurricane warnings have been issued for Jamaica, Haiti and eastern Cuba.

Matthew was a category 5 hurricane for a few hours Friday night. That made Matthew the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Felix of 2007, according to the National Hurricane Center.

These are the hurricane categories that are used by the National Hurricane Center:

Here is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

800 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY

NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 74.3W

ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI

ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Jamaica

* Haiti

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,

and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Cuban province of Camaguey

* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,

Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island

* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with

Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor

the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36

hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before

the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,

conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was

located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 74.3 West.  Matthew is

moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  This general

motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the

north tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will

approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible

during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a

powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from

the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205

miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve

Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti

on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night.  Tropical storm conditions

are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and

eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along

the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area

by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by

late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early

Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the

tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late

Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum

amounts of 40 inches.  Matthew is expected to produce total rain

accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican

Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts

of 25 inches.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash

floods and mud slides.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to

2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through today.  Matthew is

expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over

northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with

possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large

and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the

following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet

South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet

Jamaica...3 to 5 feet

Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur

well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions

of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,

Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean

coastline of Central America during the next few days.  These swells

are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Matthew could approach Jamaica and Haiti by early Monday. Here is the “cone of uncertainty”, which shows the possible track of Matthew’s center over the next few days:

rt102matt
National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Matthew is expected to pass to the east of Florida this week. Here is the spaghetti plot of Matthew’s possible track, generated by several computer models:

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tropicaltidbits

Hurricane Matthew could still take a track closer to Florida. The National Hurricane Center released this summary:

rt102summ
National Hurricane Center

Programming note:

You can hear live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.