Showery Tuesday, Hurricane Matthew landfall #1 in Haiti

The rain is back.

After  8 days without significant rainfall for most of Minnesota, scattered showers ahead of the next cool front have arrived. Scattered showers sweep across Minnesota today, the main frontal band with the heaviest rainfall arrives tonight into early Wednesday.

NOAA's NAM 4 km model captures the broad strokes. Look for scattered rain today, with the more concentrated frontal band sweeping across Minnesota tonight into tomorrow morning.

Western Minnesota is favored for the heaviest rainfall totals with this system. I could see some 1" to 2"+ totals from near redwood Falls north through Alex. The Twin Cities likely pick up .50" to 1" by midday Wednesday. A second rain wave Thursday adds to today's totals.

Rain wave #2 Thursday

Behind the front a relatively nice Wednesday afternoon. More moisture works northeast Thursday.

Rainfall over the next 7 days looks significant once again. Notice the trail of heavy rain with Matthew heading for the Carolinas.

Cooler late this week

You'll notice the chill in the air by Friday with highs in the 50s. Temperatures bottom out Saturday morning. The season's first frost still looks likely for the Twin Cities metro. We may not hit 32 at MSP, but it will be close.

Milder again next week

Temperatures warm again next week. I still see more upper 60s, and some 70s in the forecast the next two weeks. 70s may return by the weekend of October 15-16.

More spectacular fall weather is still ahead in October.

Fall color peaking up north

Fall color is at or approaching peak in some areas up north now. The combination of cool nights and sunny days is causing colors to pop, even in parts of the Twin Cities.

Matthew makes landfall in Haiti

The compact and devastating eyewall of Hurricane Matthew made landfall on Haiti's western tip this morning with 145 mph sustained winds.

Matthew is the 2nd strongest hurricane on record to hit Haiti, and the first Category 4 since 1961.

Early video coming in on twitter shows the power of Matthew.

Cuba, Bahamas next

Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas are next in line for Matthew. Tropical storm and hurricane watches will likely be issued for Florida today. The westward track trend continues overnight models. NOAA's National Hurricane Center predicts a major hurricane just east of the Florida coast Friday.

Here's the latest track envelope for Matthew. The southeast USA is clearly in play for possible hurricane conditions late this week.

Worst case scenario?

A major hurricane track paralleling the east coast? The right side of the storm feeding off extremely warm waters from the Atlantic and Gulf Stream feeding the hurricane as it tears northeast?

If Matthew takes the track along the coast, it could generate multi-billion dollar losses as hurricane force winds strafe the coast from Florida through the Carolinas all the way to Maine. Meteorologically speaking it’s close to a worst case scenario for potential insurance losses.

Let's hope today's model runs shift further east.