Freeze warning tonight, growing season two weeks longer in 2016

“It looked like the world was covered in a cobbler crust of brown sugar and cinnamon.”― Sarah Addison Allen

November Preview

It was a great summer.

That's what we tell ourselves this time of year. Minnesotans tend toward acceptance. We see what's ahead, shrug our collective shoulders and stoically move on to the next task at hand.

In our current context, late fall is the next weather chore. We cross the midpoint of meteorological fall this weekend. A few more sunny, mild afternoons remind us that October is one of the best months of the year in Minnesota. But there's no turning back the inevitable march of seasons now. Frost on your pumpkins, and the inevitable first snows are now closer than we might think. Happy weather news for many Minnesotans.

Time to get the boat out. That snow shovel you ignored for that past 7 months? It's still hanging in your garage.

Seasonal reality check

A steel gray sky gives way to some late day sun today. Clear skies and lighter winds late tonight are the ideal set up for freezing temperatures tonight. Lows dip below freezing for most of Minnesota tonight. Parts of the inner Twin Cities urban metro core may hover just above 32 degrees.

Two weeks longer: 184 day growing season at MSP?

On April 12th the thermometer at MSP Airport bottomed out at 27 degrees. That's the last date we dipped to or below 32 at MSP. If we hit 32 tomorrow morning, that makes 184 days between freezing temps at MSP.

The 30-year average growing season (1981-2010) at MSP is 167 days, according to the Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group.

The 2016 growing season at MSP will be at least 184 days this year. That's a full 17 days longer than the 30-year average. The trend toward longer growing seasons is well documented as Minnesota's climate warms overall with climate change. This year fits, and exceeds the longer term trend of more days between freezes in spring and fall.

The Minnesota Climate Working Group elaborates on the usefulness of growing season data.

The dates of the last freezing temperatures of the spring and the first freezing temperatures of the fall are of great importance to home gardeners, commercial horticulture, farmers, agribusiness, and others. These dates are sometimes referred to as “last frost” and “first frost”.

Accurate long-range forecasts of freeze dates remain beyond the reach of science. Therefore, climatologists rely on past temperature observations to calculate the historical probability of freezing temperatures occurring after (spring) or before (fall) certain dates. Users can use these probabilities to make decisions based on their tolerance for risk.

Warmer breezes ahead

Today's November chill lingers tomorrow. By Friday milder southerly breezes generate a warm front on the back side of high pressure.

Temps push 70 once again across southern Minnesota by Saturday.

Our next chance for rain rolls in Saturday. Crisp nights. Milder days by the weekend.

Fall color peaking up north

Fall color is at or past peak now in northern Minnesota. The Twin Cities is sporting 25 to 50% color now. Peak arrives this weekend in the metro.

Is it just me, or do the colors seem a bit muted this year?

Stay tuned.