Dry weekend at Ryder Cup

We won't have strong winds or rain at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska this weekend.

Sunshine and patchy clouds are on tap for today, and Sunday will feature ample sunshine after possible early morning fog.

I'm sure that everyone associated with the Ryder Cup is happy!

A low-pressure system moving north from Indiana will spin some patchy clouds over Minnesota at times today, but rain should stay to our east:

Highs will be a bit above normal in many spots:

In case you're curious, our average high is 65 degrees in the Twin Cities on Oct. 1.

Highs Sunday will also be a bit above normal:

Some spots in the metro could warm into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon.

Monday will be mild, with metro area highs in the lower 70s, then we'll see cooler temps. Highs in the 60s are on tap for Tuesday, and we'll top out around 60 on Wednesday.

Western Minnesota could see some rain on Tuesday. Periods of rain are expected over eastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean was a category 5 hurricane for a few hours Friday night. That made Matthew the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Felix of 2007, according to the National Hurricane Center.  Hurricane Matthew is now a category 4 hurricane.

These are the hurricane categories that are used by the National Hurricane Center:

Here is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

800 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.4N 73.1W

ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI

ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to

Port-Au-Prince

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor

the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was

located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near

latitude 13.4 North, longitude 73.1 West.  Matthew is moving toward

the west near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the west-northwest is

forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest

on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will

continue to move away from the Guajira Peninsula this morning, move

across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach

Jamaica Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible

this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane

through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205

miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the

aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in

portions of the warning area in Colombia for the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with

tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.  Tropical

storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late

Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher

amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through today.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are

expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to

Riohacha.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher

amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the

Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of

25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern

Haiti.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and

mud slides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions

of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,

Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, and eastern Cuba during the next few

days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather

office.

Hurricane Matthew could approach Jamaica late Sunday. Here is the “cone of uncertainty”, which shows the possible track of Matthew’s center over the next few days:

Hurricane Matthew is expected to take a turn to the right later today into early Sunday. Here is the spaghetti plot of Matthew’s possible track, generated by several computer models:

Many projected tracks take Matthew well to the east of the U.S. coastline this coming week, but the National Hurricane Center cautions that Floridians could still be affected:

The center will post regular Hurricane Matthew updates.

Warm streak continues

Our average temperature for September 2016 was 4.1 degrees above normal in the Twin Cities. September was our 13th consecutive month with a warmer than normal monthly temperature in the Twin Cities!

The October temperature outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above normal temps over Minnesota:

Of course, we can expect some cool days even if the average temperature for October is above normal.

Programming note:

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.