Hurricane Paine will turbo-charge flood potential Wednesday
"Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?" -Edward Lorenz
The best scientific answer to that question is probably not. But a hurricane in the tropical Pacific 1,500 miles away from Minnesota will rain on us this week. It may even increase the chances of a flood.
Weather knows no boundaries. A southwest flow aloft will inject moisture from Hurricane Paine into Minnesota Wednesday. The additional moisture will likely boost rainfall totals across Minnesota this week.
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Say hello to Hurricane Paine. Paine's extensive tropical moisture plume is clearly visible on the GOES West water vapor loop. The plume over the southwest U.S. is already moving in our direction and about to merge with the inbound moisture plume aiming at Minnesota from the North Pacific.
The mid-level tropical moisture injection will turbo-charge the inbound low pressure system as it reaches Minnesota Wednesday. Watch the surface map rain zone explode over the Upper Midwest as Paine's moisture juices the system.
Four-inch rains?
Wednesday's system has the potential to dump some serious rainfall across Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. I can see widespread 1" to 3" rainfall totals likely, with some towns getting over 4" by Thursday. NOAA's rainfall output stamps the soggy bull's eye over the Upper Midwest once again.
Communicating the threat
Last week I was part of the NWS Integrated Weather Team meetings in Bloomington.
We discussed how to best communicate severe weather threats, and uncertainty in forecast specifics. Today the Twin Cities NWS put out an excellent version of their severe weather discussion. This is how you clearly communicate weather threats and uncertainty in my opinion.
NOAA stamps the potential for excessive rainfall over Minnesota and western Wisconsin Wednesday.
NOAA's NAM 4 km model paints more multi inch rainfall bursts across our area Wednesday.
Bottom line: Showers and T-Storms with heavy rainfall increase over Minnesota late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 2" to 4" are likely in some areas, with locally higher totals to 6"+ possible. Rivers may rise rapidly again Wednesday into Thursday. Wednesday commutes may be affected. Flood watches may be issued Tuesday.
Stay tuned.