Hermine’s next big impact: Jersey shore?
The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore may be one of few beach-goers along the Jersey Shore this Labor Day.
Hermine slammed ashore as expected with damaging hurricane force winds and storm surge last night along the Florida Panhandle.
Hermine is has been downgraded to tropical storm status, but may yet regain hurricane strength by Labor Day if many forecast models verify. Here's the latest track from NOAA's NHC.
Rare U-Turn ahead?
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Hermine appears to be headed off the New Jersey coast by Sunday. The storm may then do a rare U-Turn as it blows up once again over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.
Check out NOAA's NAM model, which is typical of what many forecast models are now advertising.
Model intensity forecasts are still in flux, but many solutions are now blowing up Hermine into a monster storm off the Jersey Coast by Monday.
'Sandy-level' along the Jersey Shore?
The impacts from a stalled and strengthening storm just off the Jersey Coast could be devastating, and may rival Superstorm Sandy in some areas.
The prospect of 20 to 30 foot waves on top of a 5 to 9 foot storm surge? That's going to cause major coastal flooding on the southern Jersey Shore.
Bottom Line: We're not done with Hermine yet as far as U.S. coastal impacts. Expect major storm surge from 5 to 9 feet along the Jersey Shore and wave-driven coastal flooding as the storm likely stalls and intensifies east of the Jersey Shore this weekend. Models are still evolving on eventual path and intensity of Hermine.
Labor Day weekend forecast: Looking better for Minnesota
Thankfully we're not tracking any named storms over Minnesota this weekend. In fact, the forecast for Sunday has improved. It looks like we may sneak through most of Sunday dry, with storm chances returning Sunday night and Labor Day.
The same blocking pattern that will stall Hermine off the east coast should slow down Minnesota's inbound front this weekend.
In fact, a growing number of model solutions suggest Labor Day itself may turn out better than previously expected. If the models are right, showers and T-Storms may favor northern Minnesota on Labor Day, with several hours of hazy humid sunshine and more spotty storm coverage across the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.
Here's NOAA's NAM 4 km resolution model simulated radar this weekend.
The more northerly solutions this weekend also favor another muggy tropical air mass, with dew points climbing back into the sultry 70s by Memorial Day.
Enjoy the weekend!