Hermine update and Minnesota fair weather

We're on a weather winning streak!

We'll enjoy sunshine and scattered clouds today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s over most of Minnesota:

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Some spots in the Twin Cities could hit 77 or 78.

The coolest highs today will be some lower 70s, in northeastern Minnesota.

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Highs on Saturday will be a bit warmer in many spots:

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Dew points will creep up into the upper 50s Saturday afternoon, and they will be in the 60s on Sunday and Monday.

Rain chances

The high pressure system that has given us this beautiful stretch of weather will slide eastward late Saturday through Sunday:

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Western Minnesota could see scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday and Sunday. The thunderstorm chance spreads across the remainder of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, Sunday night.

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather for northwestern Minnesota Sunday and Sunday night:

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Storm Prediction Center/National Weather Service

A marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

Occasional showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Minnesota on Labor Day.

Hermine and Lester

Hurricane Hermine made landfall at 1:30 a.m. EDT just east of St. Marks, Florida. It came ashore as a Category 1 hurricane, with max winds of 80 mph. Hermine is the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in 11 years, since Wilma hit south Florida in 2005.

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NOAA

Hurricanes usually weaken after they come ashore, because they lose the energy provided by the warm water. They also encounter surface friction over land.

Hermine has weakened to tropical storm strength, and is centered over south Georgia this morning. It has max winds of 60 mph, and it will spread heavy rain and strong winds across much of Georgia and the Carolinas as it moves northeastward today and tonight:

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National Hurricane Center

Here is the latest Hermine advisory:

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016

800 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

...HERMINE WEAKENING BUT WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

COAST...

...STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.2N 82.9W

ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA

ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the

Ochlockonee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Englewood to Ochlockonee River

* Flagler/Volusia County line to Duck

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Duck to Sandy Hook

* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

* Southern Delaware Bay

Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should

monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was

located inland inland over southern Georgia near latitude 31.2

North, longitude 82.9 West.  Hermine is moving toward the

north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to

continue today and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of

Hermine will continue to move across southeastern Georgia today,

move across the coastal Carolinas tonight and move offshore of the

North Carolina coast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast while the center of

Hermine remains over land.  Some re-strengthening is expected after

the center moves offshore of the North Carolina coast on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center.  Recently reported wind gusts include 46 mph (74

km/h) at Brunswick, Georgia, and St. Augustine, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.21 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue near the

center of Hermine this morning and spread northward within the

warning area along the Atlantic coast later today and tonight.

Winds in the tropical storm warning area along the Gulf coast of

Florida should gradually diminish today.  Tropical storm conditions

are possible in the watch area on Saturday and Sunday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will

continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Hazardous storm

surge will continue this morning along the Florida Gulf coast in

areas of onshore winds.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the

peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet

Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over the southeastern United States

from northwest Florida through southern and eastern Georgia into

South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 15 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening

floods and flash floods. Heavy rain could reach the coastal

Mid-Atlantic states from Virginia to New Jersey beginning early

Saturday.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible this morning across

northern Florida and southern Georgia.  The tornado risk will spread

across the eastern Carolinas later today.

The National Hurricane Center posts frequent updates on Tropical Storm Hermine.   Also, you can find some great information at #Hermine.

Now, lets look to the west:

The Hawaiian Islands could be affected by Hurricane Lester in the next 24-48 hours. A hurricane watch is in effect for most of the Hawaiian Island chain.

Hurricane Lester is east of Hawaii, moving west-northwest:

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NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hurricane Lester is a category 2 hurricane this morning, with max winds of 110 mph.

Here is the most recent hurricane advisory:

HURRICANE LESTER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  35A

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

200 AM HST FRI SEP 02 2016

...LESTER WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

...NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 147.8W

ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF HILO HAWAII

ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Hawaii County

* Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and

Kahoolawe

* Oahu

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane force winds are possible

within the watch area. A Hurricane Watch is typically issued 48

hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult

or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the

progress of Lester.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by the National Weather Service office in

Honolulu Hawaii.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lester was located

near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 147.8 West. Lester is moving

toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is

expected to continue the next couple of days. On the forecast

track, the center of Lester will pass close to the main Hawaiian

Islands this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher

gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of

days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140

miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over Hawaii and Maui

Counties beginning late tonight and continuing through Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are possible over Oahu beginning Saturday and

continuing through Saturday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lester will arrive in Hawaiian

waters the next couple of days, including the northwestern Hawaiian

Islands. Surf generated by these swells will peak this weekend in

the main Hawaiian Islands, becoming very large and possibly damaging

along exposed shorelines.

RAIN: Heavy rains associated with Lester may impact Hawaii and

Maui counties late tonight into Saturday, and may impact Oahu

Saturday and Saturday night.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will post updates on Hurricane Lester.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday on Minnesota Public Radio.