Filtered sunshine; rain chances later in weekend

Our Labor Day weekend is starting out with filtered sunshine, as high clouds drift overhead.

High temps will be in the mid to upper 70s in most spots, with some lower 70s over northeastern Minnesota.

Sunday highs will be similar:

On Labor Day, we'll see 80s over central and southern Minnesota:

Dew points will slowly rise today and Sunday, and they'll be near 70 over southern Minnesota on Labor Day.

Rain chances

The National Weather Service North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows scattered showers over northwestern Minnesota tonight. It also shows a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, over northern and central Minnesota:

Late Sunday night into Monday morning, most of Minnesota could see some showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms could re-develop later Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Severe risk

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather for west-central Minnesota Sunday and Sunday night. There is a marginal risk of severe weather for northwestern and southwestern Minnesota:

Here are the risk categories that are used by the Storm Prediction Center:

The Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather Monday and Monday night for much of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area:

The main threat of severe weather appears to be late Monday afternoon into Monday evening and Monday night.

Hermine update

The center of Tropical Storm Hermine is located over the Outer Banks of North Carolina this morning. Hermine has max winds of 60 mph, and is moving east-northeastward:

Here is the latest Tropical Storm Hermine advisory:

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016

800 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

...HERMINE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH

CAROLINA...

...WATER LEVELS RISING RAPIDLY IN THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...35.9N 75.6W

ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNW OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 250 MI...40 KM SSE OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Ocracoke

Inlet, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet to Sandy Hook

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward

* Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward

* Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Sandy Hook to west of Watch Hill

Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should

monitor the progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings

may be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was

located by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations near the

northern Outer Banks of North Carolina near latitude 35.9 North,

longitude 75.6 West.  Hermine is moving toward the east-northeast

near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in

forward speed is forecast to continue today.  A gradual turn toward

the north is expected on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center

of Hermine will emerge over the Atlantic very soon, and then slow

down and meander offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and

Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Strengthening is forecast after the center moves over water,

and Hermine could be near hurricane intensity by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)

mainly to the south and east of the center.  Elizabeth City, North

Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 32 mph (52 km/h) and

a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).  A National Ocean Service station

at Rappahannock Light, Virginia, recently reported a sustained wind

of 40 mph (64 km/h), and a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations

is 995 mb (29.38 inches).  A National Ocean Service station at

Oregon Inlet Marina, North Carolina, recently reported a pressure

of 996.6 mb (29.41 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward

within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by

late Sunday or Sunday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of

life-threatening inundation during the next 12 hours in the Hampton

Roads area, where water levels are rapidly rising with the

approach of the next high tide.  Persons within this area should

take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising

water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation

orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of

life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal

locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport,

Connecticut.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm

Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify

for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under

development by the National Weather Service and planned for

operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is available at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the

peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Carolina coast...1 to 3 feet

Hampton Roads area...3 to 5 feet

Elsewhere from the NC/VA border to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall

accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over far southeastern Virginia and

the Atlantic coastal portion of Maryland through Monday morning.

Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to

4 inches over southern Delaware, southern and eastern New Jersey,

and Long Island through Monday morning. Moisture wrapping around

Hermine and trailing back to the south will produce an additional 1

to 3 inches or rain over parts of North Carolina and northern

Florida. This rainfall may contribute to flooding in some areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Hermine will affect much of the U.S.

mid-Atlantic coast through the weekend.  These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and

significant beach erosion.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.

The National Hurricane Center posts frequent updates on Hermine.