Balmy today, Octoberish tomorrow. ‘Euro’ getting even better?

We're easing into September this year.

We hit 80 degrees in the Twin Cities on a windy Sunday. Balmy south breezes blow again today across most of Minnesota. Temperatures once again climb toward the 80 degree mark this afternoon. Behind the front, shades of blue represent the inbound colder Canadian air mass. Highs in the 60s blanket northwest Minnesota today.

The inbound cold front slides south through Minnesota today, arriving in the Twin Cities metro around suppertime. As the front slides south, moisture will increase across southeast Minnesota. I still think any showers from the metro north and west later tonight will be light, to non-existent. The best chance for any significant rainfall favors southeast Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.

October preview tomorrow

Tuesday brings a brisk northwest wind, and temperatures that will remind you meteorological summer is in the rear-view mirror. Watch the maps as the season's first 'for real' Canadian high pressure cell slides right over Minnesota by Wednesday morning.

Coldest air since May

MSP Airport bottomed out at 43 degrees on May 18th. Since then the thermometer has stayed at or above 50 degrees.

Temperatures make the upper 40s at MSP Wednesday morning, with 30s up north. Yes, frost is common around the cooler nooks and crannies like Grand Rapids, Embarrass and Babbitt this time of year. It may happen Wednesday morning.

Take that, mosquitoes.

Next real rain by Friday

We enjoy more dry days Tuesday, Wednesday and probably most of Thursday. The latest forecast model trends hold off any significant moisture until Friday across eastern Minnesota. The potential is there for another soaking, and inch or more for parts of southern Minnesota.

Summer rerun early next week?

The sun may poke out again by Sunday. Next Monday and Tuesday look sunny and mild. Highs between 75 and 80 looks likely right now, and I'll be watching to see if we go any warmer than that.

European model upgrade setting a high bar

You know people are weather geeks when they ask you about the European model at cocktail parties. And yes, they do.

The 'Euro' or ECMWF model has the reputation as the best numerical weather forecast model on the planet for good reason. NOAA recently announced plans for a retooled GFS model. The Euro fires back with today's announcement of an ambitious upgrade goals for the Euro that could add 3 to 6 days more accuracy to the Euro.

ECMWF has launched its new ten-year Strategy, which sets ambitious goals that push the limits of predictability in weather forecasting.

A key target is to extend the probabilistic skill of ECMWF’s high-impact weather forecasts by three to six days over the next decade.

This would enable skillful predictions of high-impact weather up to two weeks ahead.

Other goals include predicting large-scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead, and global-scale anomalies up to a year ahead.

ECMWF’s Director-General Florence Rabier said: “Our 2025 ambition raises the international bar. Given the greater likelihood of life-threatening climate change impacts on the Earth’s weather, we will harness rapidly advancing data availability and technology to stretch the accuracy and range of predictions further and faster.

NWS: Time to simplify warnings?

The National Weather Service has 122 different products and warnings. It can even get confusing for those of us who make a living broadcasting weather. Here's an interesting graphic from this week's National Weather Association conference.

The best hitter in baseball is only 'right' about 4 times out of 10 at bats. In spite of what some think, meteorologists are about 90% accurate on tomorrow's weather forecast. We make easy targets for snide comments, but actually there are many professions who get it wrong sometimes and 'still get paid.' Have you chastised your financial adviser lately?

What's in a name? Again, precise communication is as important as an accurate forecast.

Warmer summer nights

Here's an interesting piece on how summer nights are warming from Capital Weather Gang.

Sailing the Northwest Passage

It's getting more common as Arctic Sea ice cover shrinks.