Severe weather outlook
A cold front will move slowly through Minnesota this afternoon and evening.
There is plenty of juicy air out ahead of the cold front, so thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous with time. Periods of thunderstorms are also expected overnight.
The front stalls out to our southeast on Friday, so periods of rain and a chance of thunderstorms are expected Friday and Friday night.
This loop covers today through Friday night:
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Severe weather risk
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has a slight risk of severe weather today and tonight for most of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area:
The categorical outlook for large hail shows about a 15% chance of one inch diameter hail within 25 miles of any point in the yellow shaded area:
Parts of southwestern and west-central Minnesota have the possibility of 2 inch diameter hail in this outlook.
The tornado outlook shows about a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of points in a portion of southwestern Minnesota:
There is an estimated 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of each point in the larger area that is shaded green.
The damaging wind outlook shows uniform chances of damaging thunderstorm winds across the risk area:
The severe weather outlook and categorical outlooks paint the big picture. Pay attention to forecast updates and specific warnings as we go through today and tonight.
Heavy rain and flooding are also possible over parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin later today and tonight.
In the Twin Cities, our chance of severe weather will tend to be this evening into the overnight hours, but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could develop later this afternoon.
Stay sky aware this afternoon and tonight. It would be a good night to keep your NOAA weather radio nearby, to wake you if there are warnings
Steamy today, then cooler
Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected over southern Minnesota today:
It will be steamy, with dew points in the upper 60s.
Friday's highs will be much cooler:
70s will be common this coming weekend, with some 60s over parts of northern Minnesota.
It will feel like September.