Severe thunderstorm risk late afternoon into evening

3:50 p.m. update

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch, valid until 10 p.m., that includes much of central and southern Minnesota.  The severe thunderstorm watch includes the entire Twin Cities metro area:

Large hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and tornadoes are possible in and close to the watch area.

It will be a warm and steamy afternoon and evening over much of Minnesota.

Some thunderstorms are possible over central and northern Minnesota early this afternoon, then most of Minnesota has a chance of thunderstorms from late afternoon into this evening.

A cold front will move eastward from South Dakota later this afternoon, igniting additional thunderstorms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System shows the expected thunderstorm redevelopment this afternoon and evening:

Severe weather

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows an enhanced risk of severe weather this afternoon and tonight for portions of southern Minnesota:

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the remainder of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, and western Wisconsin.

Our best chance of severe weather in the Twin Cities appears to be sometime between about 6 p.m. and 9 p.m., but isolated strong or severe storms could develop earlier than that.

Here are the risk categories that are use by the Storm Prediction Center:

Steamy afternoon

Highs today will be around 90 in southern Minnesota, with some lower 90s possible:

Dew point temperatures will be in the lower 70s:

It will feel almost tropical this afternoon. Heavy rainfall amounts will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of Minnesota.

It would be good to stay sky aware this afternoon and evening, and make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings.