Spotty thunderstorms north; hot mess returns next week

The Doppler is lighting up again up north.

A weak frontal boundary is the focus for scattered thunderstorms today along and either side of a line from Fargo, N.D., to Duluth. The cool front sags slowly south Wednesday, as chances for scattered thunderstorms increase in the Twin Cities metro.

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NOAA

The Twin Cities National Weather Service does a nice job of laying out the rain zones through Wednesday.

Marginal risk north

Most thunderstorms should stay below severe limits today and tomorrow. There's just not enough juice in the form of jungle-like dew points in the 70s, or strong upper level dynamics to drive widespread severe weather this week.

Still, a couple of storms have the potential to pulse into severe mode later today. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center paints a zone of marginal risk over central Minnesota today.

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NOAA

Estimating severe risk

Here's a reminder on how the Storm Prediction Center lays out risk categories for severe storm potential. There is a method to the madness of forecasting severe storms. "Marginal" is the lowest possible risk category.

NOAA risk categories

The best chance for rain in the metro arrives Wednesday. Comfortable, less humid air eases south Thursday.

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Heat wave returns next week

After a pleasant start to the weekend, the next pulse of summer heat appears ready to push back north into Minnesota next week. Monday's 500-millibar upper air chart shows the heat dome nudging north once again.

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NOAA

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center agrees, and paints warmer than average temps over most of the U.S. through early August. Where have we seen this movie before?

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NOAA

Detailed numbers for MSP favor another shot of temperatures (well) into the 90s. Throw in dew points in the 70s to near 80 degrees once again and we enjoy more days with 100-plus heat index values next week.

Longer range runs hit at potentially significant heat relief with highs int the 70s and lower 80s, and a big drop in humidity in about 10 days.

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NOAA via IPS Meteostar

Stay tuned.