Monday weather perfection; Lake Superior warming fast

We have a right to celebrate days like today in Minnesota.

Bright sun. Balmy breezes. Comfortable dew points. Warm lakes. Does it get any better thanks this?

Aquatennial fireworks 2016
Aquatennial fireworks Saturday night in Minneapolis. Paul Huttner/MPR News

High pressure drifts lazily overhead today. A pristine blue sky graces just about all of Minnesota and most of the Upper Midwest today. We'll introduce a few showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday with the best chance of another Paul Bunyan-sized gully-washer Wednesday. Abundant rainfall has been a hallmark of this summer so far.

This week looks typically summery. Jungle-like humidity returns next week.

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Enjoy one of the finest summer days Minnesota has to offer today.

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High and dry

High pressure drifts overhead today. But the next low-pressure wave is never far away this summer. Spotty showers return to Minnesota Tuesday. The best rain chance arrives Wednesday.

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NOAA

Dew points begin to creep up through the 60s again tomorrow. That's additional fuel for typical late July popcorn convection covering about 30 to 60 percent of the area by Wednesday afternoon.

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  • 10 days at or above 90 degrees so far this year at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

  • 11 days on average of 90+ heat each year at MSP (1981-2010 average)

  • 97 degrees hottest day of the year so far Friday at MSP

  • 121F hottest observed heat index at Alexandria Thursday July 21

Heat returns next week

We enjoy a more tolerable brand of summer warmth this week. The maps suggest high heat and humidity return next week. The heat dome to the south looks likely to pulse northward into Minnesota again as we move into August.

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NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System 16-day output goes into beast mode with a solid week of 90+ heat starting next week. Throw in a few days approaching 100 F with dew points in the 70s and it could get ugh-ly if this product even comes close to verifying.

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NOAA via IPS Meteostar

Cool dip in Superior?

Even usually icy Lake Superior is starting to respond to the warmth, and to warmer waters surging into the lake from heavy rainfall runoff. Temperatures are near 70 degrees from the Apostle Islands to near Duluth. Temperatures in the low 60s run all the way to Grand Marais, Minn.

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NOAA

One word of caution for brave swimmers in Lake Superior. Water temperatures can chill rapidly as you go deeper. And any offshore winds can cause temps near surface to plummet quickly, as colder water from depth is pushed to the surface due to upwelling.

East coast heat

Last week's intense heat slogs east today. Washington, D.C., will push 100 degrees today for the first time since 2012.

California fires rage

The Sand Fire just north of Los Angeles is raging. Southern California did not get much relief from drought last winter. Now fire season is nearing peak, and entire communities are at risk.

How thankful I am for our frequent downpours this summer.