Stormy Tuesday: Severe storms likely late today
The Doppler is working overtime already this week.
The next low-pressure wave and warm front bumps northeast into Minnesota today. The resulting waves of showers and thunderstorms could turn severe later this afternoon and evening across the southern half of Minnesota.
A lead wave of mostly non-severe thundershowers works north from southwest Minnesota early today. The most likely timing for strong to potentially severe storms in the Twin Cities metro area? Roughly between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. this evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center has bumped the slight risk zone farther north into to the Twin Cities metro today. A higher "enhanced risk" zone has been added to southwest Minnesota.
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Here's a closer look at the cities included in the risk zone. The Minneapolis-St. Paul area is in a slight risk. The enhanced risk in southern Minnesota includes the Interstate 90 corridor area, Redwood Falls and Mankato.
What does an enhanced risk mean? Here's a good description of the risk categories from the National Weather Service.
NOAA's North American Mesoscale Forecast System 4 km resolution model paints the intensifying line of storms arcing toward the metro around 6 p.m to 9 p.m. this evening.
The system has plenty of moisture to work with. Dew points in Iowa in the tropical 70s surge north with the front today. Dew points in the Twin Cities approach 70 by this evening.
The high dew point air means hail and heavy downpours are likely. Rainfall totals of 1 inch are likely in many spots, and I can't rule out some higher totals if storms stall over an area.
Again, NOAA's NAM 4 km model.
Bottom line on severe threat today and tonight across Minnesota:
There is a risk for severe storms later this afternoon and evening across the southern half of Minnesota.
Watches and warnings are likely.
Hail and damaging winds are the primary severe threats.
Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Heavy rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches-plus are possible.
Localized flash flooding is possible if storms stall over already saturated ground.
The best chance for severe storms in the metro is roughly between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. tonight.
Keep a high level of situational awareness today and expect watches and warnings.
Summer returns later this week
Our bumpy weather system moves toward the east coast Thursday.
Sunshine and temps in the 80s return to Minnesota Thursday and Friday. A few scattered storms may return by the weekend.
Oddball east coast tropical system this weekend?
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is doing something weird with our departing low-pressure system as it heads to the east coast.
The European model brings it out to sea, then intensifies the system and hooks it back westward toward the New Jersey and New York shores.
A tropical hybrid storm slamming the coast this weekend? The Euro has stuck with this trend for a few runs now.
Stay tuned.