Mostly steamy, partly stormy weekend ahead

Summer kicks into high gear this Father's Day weekend.

Minnesota rides the northern edge of a massive southwestern heat dome this weekend. While the Arizona deserts bake with record-level temperatures, heat and humidity ooze north into Minnesota. It's a lake-worthy, AC-worthy forecast this weekend.

The European model meteogram cranks out a hot steamy weekend pattern with many sunny hours mixed in with some clouds.

Temps have little trouble pushing past the 90-degree mark Sunday afternoon.

And keep one eye on the Doppler too, especially north and west of the Twin Cities. A stalled front provides the focus for occasional storms this weekend across central and northern Minnesota.

Saturday's severe risk includes the northern half of Minnesota.

Sunday's risk zone shifts southward and includes the greater Twin Cities metro area.

Storms will favor areas north and west of the metro Saturday and early Sunday. Storm chances in the Twin Cities increase Sunday afternoon and evening. NOAA's NAM 4 km resolution simulated radar captures the essence of the storm evolution this weekend. Actual results may vary a bit from this model solution, but the big picture trends look right to me.

There will be many sunny hours this weekend, The heaviest rainfall totals favor central and northern Minnesota.

Summer here to stay

The longer range pattern looks like summer. The upper air patterns suggest a building heat dome over the Upper Midwest just in time for....wait for it....the 4th of July weekend.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center latches onto the notion of western heat spilling eastward in late June.

If the western heat bubble shifts east, NOAA's GFS 16-day temperature output could be conservative as we move toward July.

Southwest heat this weekend

Heat this weekend could challenge some all time records in the desert southwest.

Climate signal and heat waves?

It makes sense. A warmer "base-state" of the atmosphere produces more intense heat waves.

Here's an insightful look at how climate warming and heat waves, and even the 2016 southwest heat wave are related from Climate Signals.

Global warming has led to a dramatic surge in the frequency of the most extreme heat events. Because of the way global warming shifts the climate, the very most extreme events are the weather events most affected by climate change.  As the average global temperature rises, temperatures that were once extreme become closer to average and therefore become more commonplace, as shown in the graphic on the right. The shifting bell curve also leads to the occurrence of never-before-seen extremes in high temperatures.[1][2][12]

Due to global warming, the most extreme heat events now impact a global area 10 times greater than in the period 1951-1980.[2]

The impact on moderate heat waves is also dramatic, with a seventy-five percent share of moderate heat events now attributed to climate change.[4]

Many urban areas across the globe have witnessed a significant increase in the number of heat waves, with the largest number of heat waves occurring in the most recent decade studied, 2003-2012.[3]

Heat waves have generally become more frequent across the US in recent decades, with western regions setting records for numbers of these events in the 2000s. Recent multi-month extreme heat events in the US are unprecedented since the start of reliable instrumental records in 1895.  There has also been a dramatic increase in nighttime temperatures in the US, reducing the number of critically important relief windows during heat waves.[4]

Where's there heat there's usually fire. And smoke plumes.

Some of that smoke, and smoke from Canadian fires has reached Minnesota.

Enjoy the summer-like weekend. I'll be enjoying our Minnesota weather next week and see you on June 27th!