Hot and stormy: Heat advisory and severe risk Friday
The Summer of 2016 kicks into high gear Friday.
A steamy tropical air mass has arrived in Minnesota. The combination of temperatures in the 90s and sticky dew points pushing the 70-degree mark boosts heat index values to 100 degrees Friday across much of southern Minnesota.
A heat advisory goes up at noon, in effect until 9 pm. A complex of severe storms may fire in the afternoon heat.
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INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST CLOUD...ELK RIVER...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLS .BLAINE...ST PAUL...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...HASTINGS...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST PETER... LE SUEUR...ST JAMES...MANKATO...FAIRMONT
318 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY.
* TEMPERATURE...IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND 100.
Temps hit 101 in Canby in western Minnesota Thursday afternoon.
Friday Severe Risk: MCS possible Friday night?
A weak cool front cuts into our steamy air mass Friday afternoon. That will likley trigger a wave of thunderstorms that could roll southeast from near Fargo down I-94 late in the day and toward the Twin Cities Friday evening.
NOAA's NAM 4 km resolution model simulated radar paints a band of strong to potentiality severe T-Storms into the Twin Cities between about 6 and 9 pm Friday night.
The pattern has the potential for a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that may race down I-94 from Fargo and produce damaging winds and hail. Free atmospheric entertainment on a Friday night? Seriously, keep an eye out for severe weather potential Friday evening.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center elaborates on the 'slight risk' zone across Minnesota into Wisconsin Friday.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT THIS PATTERN FAVORS MCS STORM MODE...TRAVELING IN A SELY DIRECTION. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY A BRIEF/TRANSIENT TORNADO THREAT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATEST NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
The evolution of a long-track damaging wind storm, or derecho is a possibility across Minnesota Friday afternoon and evening.
Still hot Saturday
Friday nights storms may provide some temporary cooling. But Saturday still looks hot, with highs near 90 degrees once again. Real relief arrives Sunday, as the next cool front pushes in from the Dakotas. Monday's rainmaker gathers in the Dakotas.
Here's the quick look forecast generated by the Twin Cities NWS. Looks reasonable to me.
Many of us got a good soaking Thursday morning. Rainfall over the next 7 days looks significant, and Monday could bring more heavy downpours.
Hot solstice?
The longer range upper air maps suggest a northward extension of the big heat dome over the western USA. Minnesota looks likely to run hotter than average as we approach the summer solstice at 5:14 pm CDT on June 20th.
High in the mid 80s in the GFS 16-day output could be conservative. Once 90-degree heat gets here in summer, it can be hard to dislodge for too long.
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Weather Lab and Climate Cast Friday at 10 am on MPR news
Here's the write up from MPR Senior Producer Jeff Jones on Friday's Weather Lab and Climate Cast.
Weather Lab 10 am CDT Friday on MPR News: MPR’s chief meteorologist Paul Huttner talks with weather and climate blogger Bob Henson about this year’s hurricane season. It has been 10+ years since a hurricane landfall in Florida. It’s been eight years in Texas. Paul talks with Bob about the likelihood that one will make landfall in 2016.
Climate Cast 10:30 am CDT Friday on MPR News: Paul asks a panel of experts about the cost of climate change for average Americans. Corporations and insurance companies are already calculating cost and feeling the pinch in the bottom line, but what about the rest of us? Where might family budgets be impacted by climate change? And how are courts approaching the question is who is responsible for paying the costs of climate change?
Weather Underground's Bob Henson is a great resource on all things hurricanes. And who's legally liable for climate change damages? I'll ask two prominent lawyers about legal cases already coming down the pipeline.
I hope you can join us at 10 am.