Sloppy Tuesday, cool wet bias next two weeks?

April showers

It's a cliche for a reason. But in Minnesota April showers may have multiple meanings. It could be rain, snow or sleet. Your results may vary.

Our next weathermaker rides through Minnesota Tuesday with a mixed bag of weather. A steel gray sky leaks mixed precip in the morning, trending to all rain as the day wears on and April's increased solar energy has an impact.

404 5allfcsts_loop_ndfd
NOAA

Here's a good look at the inbound system with the distribution of rain and snow patches via NOAA's NAM 4 km resolution model. A second follow on wave brings another rain/snow mix Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Create a More Connected Minnesota

MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

404 raddy
NOAA via College of Dupage

Wet Wisconsin Primary

The April rain and snow showers are mostly rain for Wisconsin tomorrow night. Voters will have some wet streets to deal with as they get to the polls Tuesday as showers streak across the Upper Midwest.

404 qpf
NOAA via College of Dupage

Here's a more detailed visual look at the forecast for the next week. Temps run a good 50 to 10 degrees cooler than average. Two distinct weather systems brings  a mix to rain scenario Tuesday, again Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

404 kky7
Weatherspark NOAA GFS data

Climate Cast: Winter rain increasing in Minnesota

It's not your imagination. As our winters warm in Minnesota, more of our precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow. Climate Central crunched some numbers that show why overall snowfall trends in Minnesota are down.

CC winter rain MN

As the world warms, the meaning of winter is changing. In the U.S., a greater percentage of winter precipitation is falling as rain, with potentially severe consequences in western states where industries and cities depend on snowpack for water, and across the country wherever there is a winter sports economy. 

A Climate Central analysis of 65 years of winter precipitation data from more than 2,000 weather stations in 42 states, found a decrease in the percent of precipitation falling as snow in winter months for every region of the country. Winter months were defined as the snow season for each station, from the month with the first consistently significant snow, to the last. 

Colorado River under climate stress

What happens when you change the climate to warmer and drier in the Colorado River Basin? 40 million people in the southwest are increasingly at risk for shortages in a major water source.  I've seen firsthand and written about how climate is stressing the Colorado River basin over the last several years.

Lake Mead Oct 2010
Lake Mead. Paul Huttner/MPR News

This week Climate Central's John Upton has another look at why the laws of supply and demand apply to climate change and water too.

Even as the number of Americans relying on the Colorado River for household water swells to about 40 million, global warming appears to be taking a chunk out of the flows that feed their reservoirs.

Winter storms over the Rocky Mountains provide much of the water that courses down the heavily-tapped waterway, which spills through deep gorges of the Southwest and into Mexico.

As greenhouse gas pollution piles up in the atmosphere, it’s trapping heat and raising global temperatures, which is beginning to parch the Colorado River watershed. Heavier impacts on drinking water supplies in the West and elsewhere are projected for the future as warming accelerates.

The new research, published in Geophysical Research Letters by academics and a federal scientist, focused on the upper stretches of the river. It attempted to parse out the different roles of temperature, precipitation and soil moisture on the variability of yearly water flows since reliable record-keeping began in 1906.

Annual Colorado River flows have naturally swung up and down over time, but the natural trends have been bucked in recent years and decades.

“What we’re seeing now is that, consistent with more of the global observations in terms of warming, that it’s not just a fluctuation that’s within that historical back and forth,” Prairie said. “That oscillation is starting to break from that range.”

Temperatures appear to have been playing a larger role in reducing the flows of water down the Colorado River since the late 1980s, the findings from the new study suggested.

CC Co River water supply demand curve
Demand for Colorado River water has begun outstripping supply. Click on image to enlarge. Credit: March report by U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

Bill Weir's Wonder List on Colorado River

Those of you interested in changes in climate and water resources on the Colorado River will want to see this. Last night's Wonder List episode with my former WGN-TV colleague Bill Weir is a visually beautiful and eye opening look at how the Colorado River is changing as our climate shifts.

Weir Wonder List

Bill and I were part of the team that launched the still wildly successful WGN-TV Morning News. Bill was an incredible talent then, and his Wonder List films are well worth the time to watch. Enjoy!