Winter storm south, sloppy metro coating

If this was the Weather Olympics this forecast would get a "10" for a high degree of difficulty.

Our weather forecast model obstacle course continues today as snow and slush works across southern Minnesota. We're now into what meteorologists call "nowcast" mode: eyes glued to radars, satellite loops and surface observations tracking hourly developments as bands of snow develop and move east.

Storm headlines

• Winter storm warnings continue for most of southern Minnesota south of the Twin Cities.

• Dakota County in the southeast metro added to winter storm warning zone.

• Winter weather advisory for bulk of Twin Cities metro area.

• Periods of sloppy snow work east today and tonight.

• 6 to 12 inches-plus snowfall totals still likely in southern Minnesota.

• Slushy coating to 2-inch totals possible for much of metro.

• Southeast metro may see heavier totals of 2 to 6 inches by late tonight.

• Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Impressive system on the maps

The overall storm structure hasn't changed much. This is an impressive system on the maps. The Twin Cities still rides the northern edge of the snow zone. Expect periods of snowfall of varying intensity today into this evening.

Warning zone south

Here's the latest winter storm warning zone from the Twin Cities National Weather Service office. Note that Dakota County in the southeast metro has been added.

Winter weather advisories are up for the bulk of the Twin Cities metro. I'm still leaning on the lower side of metro snowfall accumulations on the map below from the Twin Cities NWS.

Heavy snow zone south

One trend has been consistent the past few days. The zone of heaviest snow still favors southern Minnesota with this system.

If you live in or are travelling to Fairmont, Mankato, Waseca, Northfield, Owatonna, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona or Red Wing in Minnesota or Eau Claire, La Crosse or Tomah in Wisconsin, expect periods of heavy snow today and tonight. Thunder snow with snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible at times.

Yes, a good old fashioned March snowstorm is here for parts of Minnesota and central Wisconsin. Interstate 35 and Highway 52 south and Interstate 94 east will be a mess later today through tonight into Thursday morning.

The La Crosse NWS does a nice job of setting up the heavy snow zone for southern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

High forecast model variability

Pick your favorite weather model poison with this system. They have literally been all over the map.

If there is a consensus, it's that the heaviest snows will spread out south as the metro rides the northern edge of the snow zone.

Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 4 km resolution North American Mesoscale Forecast System model. Heavy snow across southern Minnesota could reach a foot in spots.

Longer range outlook: Spring returns next week?

This too shall pass. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model suggests a return to milder air next week with 50s and another shot at 60 degrees.

Whatever snow we get today won't be long for these parts. Is this winter's last hurrah?

Stay tuned.