Tuesday soaker brings thunder threat
The calendar still says March, but the weather maps are in a May state of mind today. Fog, drizzle, rain and thunder are weather words we usually save for late spring. Snow, sleet, and tournament snow storm are more typical March weather fare.
Not this year.
Keep the umbrella handy through tomorrow. A low pressure wave strengthens over Rochester, Minn., by morning and deepens further over Wisconsin Tuesday. The system throws waves or rain and thunder across southern Minnesota, and a rainy mix to snow in the far north.
In any other year, your local National Weather Service office would be hoisting winter storm watches and warnings with this kind of storm track. Not this time. Rain is the dominant precipitation type through tomorrow.
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Some of the totals will be heavy, a rare march soaking. A half-inch to 1 inch in the Twin Cities should produce a decent soaking into now frost free soils. Northern Minnesota could see 2 inches of precipitation by Wednesday.
Watch the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale Forecast System 4 kilometer resolution model paint bands of rain and thunder, then patches of snow wrapping in as colder air filters in behind the system in the next 48 hours.
Plan on wet commutes this week. Flakes fly up north.
There's enough instability to spark a few thunderstorms Tuesday across southern Minnesota including the metro. Tuesday's severe risk nudges into southeast Minnesota, with a decent shot at severe storms for Madison, Wis., Milwaukee and Chicago.
Here's a closer break down of forecast parameters this week for the greater Twin Cities and most of southern Minnesota. The other shoe this month? A sloppy wet duck boot.
Jekyll and Hyde March
I forget. Which one was Jekyll? This month has two distinct personalities in Minnesota.
+12 degrees vs. average so far at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport this month.
70 degrees twice at MSP this month
40 degrees average high today at MSP
Temperatures cool dramatically later this week, back to near or below average into next week.
The cool snap last a few days, but there are already signs it may be brief. NOAA's Global Forecast System model hints at 60s again by next week.
Stay dry Minnesota.