February mega-thaw: A shot at 50 Friday?
Our landscape in the Twin Cities transitions from white to brown in the next 72 hours.
Milder Pacific breezes begin to blow tomorrow. It won't feel that warm with a gusty south wind, but temperatures should crack the 40-degree mark as early as Thursday afternoon.
Our February mega-thaw peaks Friday afternoon as temperatures may push the 50-degree mark from the Twin Cities westward.
The upper winds blow in from the Pacific Ocean the rest of this week. The jet stream goes far north on Canadian vacation. A common occurrence in this El Nino-driven winter.
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At the surface where we live weather maps tell part of the story; a vigorous warm front pushing north followed by a milder Pacific "cold" front. But all barbed blue lines are not created equal on the weather maps as this one blows in from Seattle, not the frigid Northwest Territories.
Just how far out of whack is this inbound air mass? Temperatures running +20 degrees vs. average by Friday across the Midwest. Here's the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer.
Temperatures Friday afternoon look more like late March, or even early April across the Upper Midwest. NOAA's national digital forecast database cranks out 48 for the Twin Cities Friday.
Looking for an early spring break destination? How about Des Moines, Iowa? 70 degrees Friday in Kansas City, Mo., the new Phoenix? Just. Wow.
4-day mega-thaw?
The durataion of the upcoming thaw is as impressive as the magnitude. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model continues to lead the charge, cranking out four days at or above 40 degrees in the Twin Cities. Your local bank thermometer in hyper-active mode flashing 51 on Friday afternoon? It's not out of the question.
Temperature will probably stay above the thawing point both Thursday and Friday nights in the metro. Throw in a few rain showers and buh-bye snow cover.
Just the beginning?
We cool down early next week to near average in the 30s. The European Centre model is cranking out 40s again for the metro as early as next Thursday and Friday. As we peer into the early days of the once wintry month formerly known as March, the trends continue to favor milder than average air masses over a big chunk of the lower 48.
The longer range guidance from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hints at more 40s ahead, with chances for rain.
Spring may indeed be right around the corner, or at least the corner after that.
Stay tuned.